China Emerges as the Centerpiece at Central Asian Summit, Showcasing Xi’s Global Influence Amid U.S. Distraction

As the leaders of China, Russia, India, Iran, and other nations converged on Central Asia for a two-day summit beginning on Monday, one reality stood out from the start. Even as President Trump attempts to reshape global affairs around Washington, President Xi Jinping of China commands his own formidable sphere of influence.

The Chinese leader’s arrival in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, for a meeting of the 10-nation political and security grouping known as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization highlighted Mr. Xi’s broad capacity to sustain Washington’s adversaries, both during peacetime and in times of war.

The discussions unfolded against the backdrop of two conflicts that have pushed the world into a period of heightened geopolitical instability, dampening economic growth and fueling inflation. These same challenges dominated parallel talks on the other side of the globe in Asheville, N.C., where finance ministers from the Group of 20 countries gathered.

The Bishkek meeting, by contrast, served as a vivid illustration of the leverage these wars have handed Mr. Xi.

No nation has been more essential to Russia and Iran in maintaining their economies and military campaigns than China. Mr. Xi has actively undermined efforts by the United States and its allies to economically pressure Russia and Iran, wielding Beijing’s vast geopolitical and economic strength as the world’s largest importer of crude oil and a leading exporter of consumer goods.

Mr. Xi’s chief rival, the United States, has been preoccupied with the war involving Iran and has reduced some of its military deployments in Asia and Europe. Just last month, the Chinese leader was able to dismiss threats by President Trump that the United States would unleash an “economic D-Day” on nations that offered Tehran a lifeline. Mr. Trump previously issued similar threats regarding purchasers of Russian oil but took no concrete action against Beijing.

“After the past year, Trump has a fundamental credibility problem with Xi,” noted Julian Gewirtz, who served as senior director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration. “Both his threats and his assurances appear to Beijing, as another world leader put it, to be written in pencil.”

In Bishkek, Mr. Xi’s primary objective is to project himself as the standard-bearer of non-Western nations and counter what he characterizes as U.S. hegemony. Nevertheless, he is likely to exercise caution regarding the extent of public support he extends to Iran.

The Chinese leader cannot risk antagonizing Mr. Trump less than a month before he is expected to travel to Washington to renew a fragile economic truce between the United States and China. Prior to his U.S. visit, Mr. Xi will undertake state visits to Egypt and India.

Analysts noted that this sequence of trips leading up to his summit with Mr. Trump is designed to position Mr. Xi as a commanding world statesman at a moment when Mr. Trump has strained U.S. relationships across the globe.

“Xi appears to see an opportunity to demonstrate that China has friends and options around the world at precisely the moment Washington is alienating many of its allies,” Mr. Gewirtz observed.

This week’s summit in Bishkek underscores the constraints of U.S.-led economic warfare. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, both heavily dependent on China, arrived in the Kyrgyz capital on Monday as they seek to resist Western isolation efforts and advance their own wartime objectives.

Beijing has largely cooperated, extending economic support to both Moscow and Tehran and leveraging its economic power to Washington’s growing frustration.

While Mr. Xi’s influence continues to expand, it has its boundaries. Although the Shanghai Cooperation Organization functions partly as a security bloc, Beijing has refrained from deploying its military to defend members such as Iran, which joined the organization in 2023, or Russia, instead formally advocating for dialogue and an end to hostilities.

Mr. Xi has no desire to become mired in foreign conflicts, analysts have noted, viewing such entanglements as a key reason for the gradual erosion of American power over the decades. However, Beijing remains willing to expand trade and supply technologies that can serve battlefield purposes.

The Chinese leader held bilateral talks with Mr. Putin in Bishkek on Monday, hailing what he described as increasingly bright prospects for China-Russia relations.

Mr. Putin, in turn, emphasized the success of visa-free travel between the two countries and expressed readiness to make the arrangement permanent. The Russian leader also mentioned that the first scheduled passage of a Chinese container ship through the Northern Sea Route occurred in mid-August, signaling expanded cooperation in the Arctic.

Whether Mr. Xi holds a separate meeting with the Iranian leader outside the summit framework will signal how far the Chinese leader is prepared to push boundaries ahead of his scheduled visit to the United States.

Once comprising only Russia, China, and four Central Asian states, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization expanded in 2017 to include India and Pakistan, and more recently added Belarus and Iran. In doing so, it has evolved into an increasingly significant counterweight to Western-led political and security alliances.

Several leaders attending the Bishkek summit have played roles in supporting Mr. Putin’s war against Ukraine, now in its fifth year, and in assisting Iran as it endures a months-long U.S. campaign.

Shortly after Mr. Putin launched the full-scale invasion in 2022, Iran supplied Russia with Shahed drones and assisted Moscow in establishing domestic production capabilities for the weapons.

Central Asian nations have emerged as vital import and payment channels for Russia, enabling Moscow to circumvent Western restrictions. Iran has similarly turned to Central Asia as an alternative import route amid the ongoing U.S. blockade.

India, Kazakhstan, and Belarus are among the countries that have recently stepped in to supply gasoline to Russia as Ukrainian long-range strikes have crippled Russian oil refineries.

India became one of the largest buyers of Russian oil following Mr. Putin’s invasion. Although its imports declined after pressure from Mr. Trump and new U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies, the U.S. conflict with Iran disrupted oil markets and prompted Indian suppliers to resume Russian imports.

China remains the single largest importer of both Russian and Iranian crude oil.

Mr. Xi’s relationship with Mr. Putin is growing increasingly favorable to Beijing. Western sanctions tied to Russia’s war with Ukraine have allowed China to accumulate discounted Russian oil, softening the impact of a potential blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

Even the location of this week’s summit illustrates China’s expanding influence over Russia. A former Soviet republic, Kyrgyzstan once sat firmly within Moscow’s sphere of influence. Yet China’s footprint in the Central Asian nation has grown considerably, and the five Central Asian states have drawn closer together in response to Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.

In opening remarks ahead of a meeting with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov on Monday, Mr. Xi stated that relations between Beijing and Bishkek had “made a leap forward” and that cooperation was “flourishing across all areas.”

When Mr. Xi travels to the United States, Mr. Trump is expected to seek Beijing’s cooperation on both Iran and North Korea, though it remains uncertain whether China will comply, according to Mr. Gewirtz.

“Trump has painted himself into a corner,” he said. “The administration is struggling to reconcile two seemingly incompatible objectives: intensifying pressure on Iran while preserving its truce with China.”

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