Russia’s homegrown satellite network fails to achieve orbit, yet remains a threat to Ukraine

None of the 16 satellites launched by Russia on 19 July as part of its Rassvet programme – an effort to create a domestic counterpart to Starlink for guiding drones and missiles used against Ukraine for over four years – have reached their intended orbit, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which cited data from live‑track service N2YO.

The majority of the satellites remain at altitudes between 300 km and 400 km, far short of the planned 870 km operational orbit, the report noted. At least two are now on a trajectory toward re‑entry into Earth’s atmosphere. Lower‑altitude flight subjects them to greater atmospheric drag, accelerated fuel consumption and reduced service life, meaning they are unlikely to meet Russia’s original operational expectations even if they stabilise.

Satellite internet has become a cornerstone of modern warfare on both sides of the conflict. Ukrainian forces rely on Starlink to operate reconnaissance and strike drones, coordinate artillery and maintain communications in areas where Russian attacks have destroyed ground infrastructure.

The human cost is stark. Since the full‑scale invasion began in February 2022, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) has verified at least 16 874 civilian deaths and 51 173 injuries as of the end of July. In its 13 August report, HRMMU identified July 2026 as the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since March 2022, with a minimum of 437 killed and 2 610 injured. The surge was driven by intensified aerial bombardments, glide‑bomb attacks and continued long‑range missile and drone strikes on cities well beyond the front line. Monthly reports also recorded successive peaks in short‑range drone casualties near the front in April and May.

A functional Rassvet network would enable Russia to direct strikes over greater distances with higher precision, which is why the programme’s repeated setbacks matter far beyond technical details.

A troubled launch record

Of the 16 Rassvet satellites launched on 24 March, 12 have attained the intended 550 km altitude and remain in orbit, according to the analysis. Those operational satellites already provide Russian forces with two daily connectivity windows to ground terminals, totalling up to 90 minutes of coverage over Ukraine.

Moscow is accelerating the constellation to offset the loss of Starlink, after Kyiv and SpaceX introduced a whitelist that deactivated illicit Russian terminals in early February. The ISW report cautioned that “Russia may have been unprepared to accelerate constellation deployment at this pace and will likely face additional delays.” Even a partially functional system, however, remains hazardous. The existing satellites “may allow Russian forces to conduct more precise strikes against Ukraine using remotely controlled unmanned systems” during the brief connectivity periods.

Falling short of scale

Bureau 1440, the Russian aerospace firm behind the project, has announced plans for “dozens” of additional launches to deploy hundreds more satellites. Serhii Beskrestnov, then an adviser to Ukraine’s defence minister, estimated on 31 May that Russia would need at least 200–250 satellites to achieve continuous, stable connectivity and that such a target was unlikely in the near term. The bottleneck, the report notes, stems from Russia’s dependence on the Soyuz‑2.1b launch vehicle – a costly and scarce asset. Only six to eight Soyuz‑2.1b launches have been conducted since 2022 across all space and commercial missions, a tempo that could yield a maximum of 128 Rassvet satellites over four years, assuming every launch succeeds and none are diverted. To date, just 37.5 % of launched Rassvet satellites have reached a sustainable operational altitude.

Ukraine targets the supply chain

Ukrainian forces have also struck the programme’s supporting infrastructure in an effort to hamper Russia’s ability to launch deadly strikes. On the night of 14–15 August they hit the Progress Space Rocket Center, which manufactures Soyuz‑type launch vehicles. A second attempted strike targeted the Plesetsk Cosmodrome on 23 August, two days before Russia used a Soyuz‑2.1b to launch a GLONASS‑K1 satellite, part of its alternative navigation system. Both Rassvet launch batches originated from Plesetsk. The report concluded that Ukraine’s actions “threaten not only Russia’s limited supply and production of launch vehicles but also the scarce launch infrastructure required to place satellites into orbit” – a disruption that, if successful, would make Russia’s campaign against Ukraine considerably less lethal.

Source link