Ryan O’Hanlon
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- Ryan O’Hanlon is a staff writer for ESPN.com. He’s also the author of “Net Gains: Inside the Beautiful Game’s Analytics Revolution.”
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Spotting a poor transfer is considerably easier than identifying a successful one.
For one thing, the majority of transfers simply do not work out. If you randomly select 20 summer signings and predict that a particular player will fail to feature in even half of his new club’s available minutes, you will be right far more often than you are wrong.
Most football clubs are fundamentally flawed organizations. That is not a comment on the intelligence of the individuals running them, but rather on the structures themselves, which rarely allow for rigorous, objective decision-making. Hardly anyone evaluates a potential signing in terms of the goals or points he might realistically add to the team. The process remains overwhelmingly driven by instinct.
This approach seems reckless when clubs are routinely spending upwards of $100 million on transfer fees, only to commit the player to a costly long-term contract. It is equally reckless given the sheer number of ways a deal can collapse: the player fails to live up to expectations, the manager falls out of favor with him, he suffers a serious injury, his family struggles to settle in a foreign country, or the club underestimated the difficulty of adapting between leagues.
Beyond all those variables, a straightforward heuristic applies. A failed transfer only requires one club to make a poor decision. For a transfer to be genuinely successful — securing a talented player for significantly less than his true worth — every rival club must have passed on him. That is why overpaying for players who never become regulars happens far more frequently than uncovering hidden stars at bargain prices.
Instead of attempting to crown the best deals of the summer, I am doing what I did last year: highlighting the signings most likely to underperform. Below are the top 11 across Europe’s major leagues.
How we’re identifying bad transfers
For the third consecutive year, we are relying on the projection model developed with the help of NFL analyst Kevin Cole. We examined four years’ worth of high-profile transfers and tracked how each player’s estimated market value on Transfermarkt changed 12 months after the move. As I explained last year, we discovered that:
To varying degrees, a lower age, a lower transfer fee, and a higher market value at the time of the transfer increased the likelihood of a player’s value rising over the following year. By combining these factors, we can generate a formula to project whether a player’s market value will rise or fall relative to his fee, and by what margin.
In essence: Will a player’s market value a year from now be higher or lower than what the club paid for him, and how significant will that difference be?
This is a straightforward analytical framework that does not factor in the substantial variation in wages across deals. Additionally, both the market valuations and reported fees from Transfermarkt often include performance-related add-ons.
That said, research has consistently shown that Transfermarkt valuations align reasonably closely with actual player worth. The platform also benefits from the wisdom of the crowd, offering a strong consensus on how the football world evaluates a given player. Based on our data, when clubs have paid well above the Transfermarkt valuation, those deals have historically struggled to deliver a return.
Last summer’s bottom 11 featured Newcastle’s first-season disappointments Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, the player they effectively replaced at Liverpool in Alexander Isak, and Arsenal’s Eberechi Eze, who managed just 1,812 minutes on the pitch.
Looking at this summer’s window, one trend is immediately apparent: transfer inflation. Last year, only four players were projected to lose 30% or more of their value within a year. This season, that number has jumped to 11 across Europe alone. After excluding deals involving Saudi Arabian clubs, we begin our countdown in North London.
11. Mateus Fernandes, midfielder, West Ham to Tottenham
Age: 21
Fee: €99 million
Market value: €50 million
Projected negative differential: 30.3%
This model tends to be generous when a club signs a young player. For instance, Manchester City brought in 18-year-old Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille for €95 million — €15 million above his Transfermarkt valuation — yet the model still projects his value to increase by 25% relative to that fee within a year.
So why is Fernandes ranked lower? Bouaddi is widely regarded as the next elite midfielder, while Fernandes was a strong performer for a struggling side last season. More importantly, Bouaddi is three years younger, which gives him significantly more room to develop.
0:40
Have Tottenham gone over the odds to sign Mateus Fernandes?
10. Ezri Konsa, center back, Aston Villa to Arsenal
Age: 28
Fee: €59.6 million
Market value: €45 million
Projected negative differential: 33.06%
It comes as no surprise that the ownership group behind the Los Angeles Rams also controls Arsenal. The Rams built their reputation on trading draft capital for proven talent. Shortly after winning the Super Bowl, general manager Les Snead famously wore a T-shirt reading, “F— them picks.” That mindset is all about winning now and dealing with the consequences later.
Following years of careful youth development, Arsenal fully embraced this philosophy last summer. Their three marquee signings were all players in the later stages of their primes. With William Saliba sidelined indefinitely due to a back injury, the club turned to Konsa, paying a fee that made him the most expensive 28-year-old center back in football history.
The message is clear: Arsenal are going all-in on immediate success.
9. Rodri, midfielder, Manchester City to Barcelona
Age: 30
Fee: €60 million
Market value: €55 million
Projected negative differential: 34.1%
On the surface, Bouaddi and Yan Diomande looked like the classic post-World Cup overpays: players whose stock rose after a few impressive performances against weaker opposition. However, both were already establishing themselves as elite talents at the club level before the tournament.
Allow me, then, to argue that Rodri — possibly the finest midfielder of his generation — was this summer’s true World Cup overpay.
He suffered a torn ACL two years ago and was widely considered a shadow of his former self at Manchester City last season, logging only around 1,600 minutes. Then, in the more forgiving environment of the World Cup, he rediscovered his best form, and the footballing world appeared to collectively overlook his recent struggles.
He is now 30 and preparing to operate within one of the most physically demanding tactical systems in European football.
8. Randal Kolo Muani, forward, Paris Saint-Germain to Juventus
Age: 27
Fee: €41.2 million
Market value: €20 million
Projected negative differential: 34.52%
During his loan spell at Tottenham last season, he scored one goal and recorded one assist across nearly 1,700 minutes of action. To clarify: he plays as a forward.
7. Youri Tielemans, midfielder, Aston Villa to Manchester United
Age: 29
Fee: €41 million
Market value: €30 million
Projected negative differential: 34.9%
On paper, he appears to be the heir to Casemiro, but the comparison does not hold up — or at least it should not.
Casemiro generated most of his on-ball value at Manchester United by making surging runs into the penalty area. Tielemans, by contrast, is a classic possession-oriented midfielder who thrives on high-volume ball progression. The two players share almost no stylistic overlap.
Beyond his age, the key concern with Tielemans is simply how often he will be available to play.
Sandwiched between a relatively healthy 2024-25 campaign, he missed 11 matches through injury in 2023-24 and 23 matches last season. United’s subsequent moves for the significantly younger midfielders Andrey Santos and Carlos Baleba suggest the club recognizes that Tielemans may spend extended periods on the sidelines and could soon decline, as most players do at his stage.
6. Sandro Tonali, midfielder, Newcastle to Tottenham
Age: 26
Fee: €108 million
Market value: €80 million
Projected negative differential: 36.2%
Tonali has long been a subject of misplaced comparisons. Because of his flowing hair, Italian heritage, and time at AC Milan, he was likened to Andrea Pirlo early in his career. Pirlo, however, stands among the greatest long-range playmakers the game has ever produced. By contrast, Tonali completed just 13 line-breaking passes last season — tied for 139th in the Premier League.
He is a solid, well-rounded midfielder who contributes in multiple areas. Tottenham, however, paid a fee that reflects a finished superstar.
5. Bruno Guimarães, midfielder, Newcastle to Arsenal
Age: 28
Fee: €87.5 million
Market value: €70 million
Projected negative differential: 36.25%
Much of this can be attributed to the Premier League’s new squad-cost-ratio regulations, which cap how much of their revenue clubs can allocate to player-related expenses each season. That context aside, the optics of this deal remain striking.
The general logic is straightforward: American ownership groups tend to prioritize cost-cutting and revenue growth, since they view sports franchises as financial investments. Sovereign wealth funds, on the other hand, are willing to push spending to the regulatory limits — and beyond — because their primary objective is the prestige that comes with sustained on-field success.
Seen through that lens, Newcastle (backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund) should be the club purchasing Guimarães from Arsenal (controlled by Stan Kroenke), not the other way around.
2:33
Does Bruno Guimarães improve Arsenal?
4. Sávio, winger, Manchester City to Tottenham
Age: 22
Fee: €87.7 million
Market value: €35 million
Projected negative differential: 40.17%
If the model’s preference for young signings still seems puzzling, look no further than the player previously known as Savinho.
Manchester City signed him from their sister club Troyes for €25 million — a fee that reflected his standout season on loan at Girona at age 19, another City Football Group outfit.
In two seasons at City, however, Sávio managed just two Premier League goals and started only 28 league matches. Despite those underwhelming returns, another club was prepared to gamble close to €90 million on his untapped potential.
I had high hopes for Sávio as a classic buy-low candidate, and the model would have agreed — but Tottenham’s fee treats him as an established star.
3. Morgan Rogers, attacking midfielder, Aston Villa to Chelsea
Age: 23
Fee: €138 million
Market value: €90 million
Projected negative differential: 40.8%
Even granting the possibility that Rogers can defy conventional analytics or briefly emulate Lionel Messi, his underlying numbers are remarkable. Over the past two seasons, he has scored 18 goals from an expected goals tally of 13.41 and recorded 16 assists against an expected assists figure of 9.6.
Even accounting for that overperformance, he has averaged 0.49 non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 minutes during his time at Villa — an excellent return, but far short of justifying a record-breaking British transfer fee.
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This is one of those deals where the sheer scale of the investment leaves virtually no margin for error. Chelsea effectively paid for the absolute best-case scenario.
To put it another way: Rogers is the third Villa player on this list. Had Al Hilal’s €58.4 million move for the 30-year-old Ollie Watkins been included, it would have topped the rankings. Villa have unquestionably excelled at exploiting market inefficiencies to their advantage.
The question for Villa, however, is whether all of this needed to happen simultaneously. On Monday, Villa became just the second team in the past 20 years to fail to register a shot on target across their opening two Premier League matches. The previous instance? Swansea, who were relegated that season.
2. Gonçalo Ramos, forward, Paris Saint-Germain to AC Milan
Age: 25
Fee: €30 million
Market value: €74 million
Projected negative differential: 48%
When committing that level of fee to a PSG castoff who spent most of his time as a substitute in Ligue 1, the production should resemble Messi’s rather than João Pedro’s. Like Sávio, Ramos represented a classic buy-low opportunity that has instead become a buy-high gamble.
1. Enzo Fernández, midfielder, Chelsea to Manchester City
Age: 25
Fee: €145 million
Market value: €100 million
Projected negative differential: 49.1%
The creators of the statistics platform Futi developed a possession-value model that quantifies a player’s contribution by measuring how his actions influence his team’s likelihood of scoring and conceding. The figure is then adjusted for the quality of opposition, the player’s position, and the overall performance of the team while he is on the pitch.
Across his three complete seasons at Chelsea, Fernández ranked 15th among midfielders in 2023-24, seventh in 2024-25, and ninth in 2025-26 among players in his position who logged at least 2,000 minutes in the Premier League.
He is an excellent Premier League midfielder. He has also just become the most expensive player in Premier League history.
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