Aidan O’Brien stands as the world’s premier trainer due to his endless supply of royally bred horses and his relentless attention to detail. Before a race, the meticulous Irishman meticulously briefs his jockeys on Plan A, Plan B, and potentially Plan C.
However, controlling the outcome once the gates open is nearly impossible, a reality O’Brien experienced on Aug. 19 when chaos reigned at the Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) at York. Billed as the race of the summer—a showdown between Ombudsman and O’Brien’s Constitution River—the event unfolded into anything but a straightforward affair.
O’Brien had entered Action as a pacemaker for Constitution River, but the horse broke slowly and never assumed the lead. Furthermore, O’Brien expected Devil’s Advocate to pace the odds-on favorite Ombudsman, but trainer John Gosden never executed that strategy. Consequently, Constitution River was forced to accelerate too early, which dulled his closing kick, and Ombudsman never engaged. This opened the door for two longshots, with 10-1 Item defeating 14-1 Almaqam in the final strides, leaving Constitution River a fading third and Ombudsman fourth.
“It was just a bit of a mess,” O’Brien remarked. “Everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong. But we believed that considering the circumstances, Constitution River ran a very good race.”
Irish Champion Betting: O’Brien Saddles Constitution River and Two Others
O’Brien hopes for a drastically different outcome when Constitution River, Item, and Almaqam meet again on Saturday in the 1 1/4-mile, $1.452 million Irish Champion Stakes (G1). The 51st running of the race serves as a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) on Oct. 31 at Keeneland. In 2023, O’Brien’s colt Auguste Rodin became only the fourth horse to sweep both events, following the footsteps of Daylami (1999), Fantastic Light (2001), and High Chaparral (2003).
The Champion Stakes represents one of five Group races scheduled for Saturday at Leopardstown during the Irish Champions Festival, which will continue on Sunday with five additional Group events at the Curragh.
“Everything leads to this weekend,” O’Brien stated. “This has evolved into a seriously important weekend worldwide. We strive to train them to peak for it.”
For racing bettors, here is an analysis of the Irish Champion Stakes field starting from the rail, with trainer and odds provided in parentheses:
1 Almaqam (Ed Walker, 9-2)
Just missed when caught late for a second-place finish in the Juddmonte International. The 5-year-old has four wins in 14 career starts, posting a 1-for-6 record in Group 1 races. He prefers softer ground.
Betting Verdict: Use underneath
2 Hotazhell (Jessica Harrington, 25-1)
Arrives off a July 26 Group 1 victory in the Grosser Dallmyr-Preis in Germany, snapping a seven-race losing streak and improving to 2-for-7 at the top level. The Champion field presents a significantly tougher challenge than the one he conquered in Munich.
Betting Verdict: Toss
3 Lambourn (Aidan O’Brien, 50-1)
You might receive 50-1 odds on a front-running colt who captured both the Epsom Derby (G1) and Irish Derby (G1) last year. Only O’Brien could employ a dual-classic winner as a pacemaker. However, the horse has lost his way, dropping six of his last seven starts.
Betting Verdict: Toss
4 Purview (Dermot Weld, 16-1)
A Group 3 winner on a three-race winning streak after starting his career 0-for-4. He has never faced a field this formidable and appears to be in over his head.
Betting Verdict: Toss
5 Wimbledon Hawkeye (George Scott, 25-1)
American horseplayers watched him win the Nashville Derby (G3) last year at Kentucky Downs. He took a Group 3 last time out at Deauville after finishing a close third behind Hotazhell in the Grosser Dallmyr-Preis. He is just 4-for-17 lifetime and finished 12th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. He does not fit with this group.
Betting Verdict: Toss
6 A Boy Named Susie (Donnacha O’Brien, 10-1)
Dominated the 10-furlong Royal Whip (G3) at the Curragh for his first stakes victory in eight tries. His trainer is Aidan O’Brien’s son, and his owner, Ana O’Brien, is Donnacha’s sister. “That was just what we wanted,” Donnacha said. “He quickened up nicely, and I thought he was quite impressive. He has a turn of foot, which I think will suit Leopardstown.” He did finish second by three lengths to Constitution River in the Eclipse Stakes, marking his second Group 1 runner-up finish.
Betting Verdict: Use underneath
7 Constitution River (Aidan O’Brien, 3-2)
Ran creditably despite being compromised by pace tactics when finishing third in the Juddmonte, ending a five-race winning streak. That was only his second loss in seven career starts, and he is 3-for-4 at 10 furlongs. O’Brien will have him trained to the minute, and this standout 3-year-old should bounce back.
Betting Verdict: The pick
8 Hawk Mountain (Aidan O’Brien, 25-1)
Ignore his sixth-place dud in the Juddmonte, where he ended up on the lead—a position where he is uncomfortable. A Group 3 winner with class, he secured a Group 1 victory last year at age 2 and finished second and third at the top level this year.
Betting Verdict: Use underneath
9 Item (Andrew Balding, 5-2)
This 3-year-old’s only defeat in five starts was a ninth-place flop on a boggy course in the Epsom Derby (G1). That loss can be dismissed, as many outstanding horses have had legitimate excuses for poor performances on the quirky Epsom Downs course.
Betting Verdict: Win contender
The Picks: 1 Constitution River 2 A Boy Named Susie 3 Item
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.