Morgan Stanley analysts say the recent surge in diesel prices above $6 per gallon strengthens the business case for Tesla’s electric Semi. Diesel costs have risen more than 60 % year‑over‑year after sanctions and geopolitical conflicts reduced global refining capacity. In a note on Friday, analyst Andrew Percoco warned that “$6 Diesel…Enter Tesla Semi,” highlighting Tesla’s early production of the electric truck and its goal to achieve autonomous driving by early 2027. According to the bank’s modeling, an autonomous electric Semi would cut operating costs by about 20 % per mile compared with a conventional diesel truck and enable drivers to log more than 215,000 miles annually—over double today’s average. The analysis projects annual profit per unit (excluding overhead) could jump more than 400 % to roughly $202,000, versus about $37,000 for a diesel counterpart. Additionally, Tesla could earn $12,000‑$18,000 per truck each month from its autonomous‑driving software revenue. CEO Elon Musk noted that Tesla’s Semi fleet will still represent only a small share of the overall vehicle lineup through the end of the year. Morgan Stanley rates Tesla equal‑weight with a $400 price target, implying about a 10 % upside relative to the recent close of $363.56.
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