Bitcoin’s daily 50-day exponential moving average fell back below its 200-day counterpart Friday evening as BTC declined to $77,438, erasing a brief golden cross that had appeared earlier in the session.
The 4-hour chart retains its bullish golden-cross configuration, although momentum indicators point to a meaningful slowdown.
The pullback coincided with a sharper hawkish repricing in rates markets, lifting the probability of a 25-basis-point increase at next week’s Fed meeting to 86.5%, according to CME data.
Bitcoin’s brief confirmation of a daily golden cross did not survive the afternoon session.
BTC was trading near $77,438, up 1.19% for the day but well below an earlier high of $79,837. The retreat followed a more hawkish repricing of interest-rate expectations after fresh inflation data.
The latest CPI report showed core inflation rising 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% forecast. CME FedWatch, which derives probabilities from 30-day Fed funds futures, put the chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase at about 69% immediately after the release. Within hours, that estimate had climbed to 86.5%.
A rate increase would typically prompt investors to reduce risk, potentially weighing on Bitcoin, technology shares, and other risk assets if the Federal Reserve acts at its next meeting.
The daily Bitcoin candle opened at $76,529, climbed to $79,837, then fell to $76,040 before recovering to around $77,438. The move left the coin up 1.19% on the day but far below its high.
That swing was enough to push the daily exponential-moving-average signal back into bearish territory. Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA, which reflects the average of the latest 50 daily closes, had moved above its 200-day EMA earlier Friday. The crossover, known as a golden cross, is traditionally one of the strongest bullish chart signals and had not appeared for Bitcoin since November 2025. The signal proved short-lived.
With the 50-day average now below the 200-day level, Bitcoin remains close to a golden cross but has not retained the signal. A renewed crossover is still possible, although the current daily candle no longer confirms it.
Why a short-lived golden cross is not uncommon
A golden cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average, such as the 50-day EMA, crosses above a longer-term benchmark, typically the 200-day EMA.
Traders watch the pattern across markets because it has historically been followed by several of Bitcoin’s largest advances. It is nevertheless a lagging indicator based solely on past prices. When the two averages are close together, as they are now, ordinary intraday fluctuations can cause the crossover to appear and disappear within one session.
That is what unfolded Friday: the rise to $79,837 lifted the 50-day EMA above the 200-day average, while the retreat to $77,438 pushed it back below.
For daily-chart analysts, the episode underscores how fragile a golden cross can be when the averages are tightly grouped. A volatile session can move the signal back and forth before the daily close. Because the daily candle was still open, the reading could change again.
Despite the fluctuating moving-average signal, the underlying trend remains strong.
The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength without indicating direction, stood at 45—well above the 25 level commonly used to distinguish a meaningful trend from market noise. Positive directional movement also remained ahead of negative directional movement.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which gauges momentum from 0 to 100, was at 55.5. Readings above 70 indicate overbought conditions and readings below 30 indicate oversold conditions; Bitcoin’s current reading remains on the bullish side of neutral.
Four-hour setup: Golden cross intact, momentum fading
Unlike the daily chart, the 4-hour chart has not lost its golden cross. Bitcoin’s 50-period EMA remains above its 200-period EMA, preserving the broader bullish structure that emerged in late August. Other 4-hour indicators, however, show that momentum has cooled.
The 4-hour RSI has fallen to 43.3, entering bearish territory. The Squeeze Momentum indicator, which had been compressed for several days, has now activated as volatility expanded 3.95%—a setup that often precedes a sharp move, with the current signal pointing to the downside.
The 4-hour ADX is 25.1, only marginally above the 25 threshold, indicating that the short-term trend is considerably weaker than the daily trend.
The broader outlook is still bullish. The 4-hour structure has remained intact since late August, while the daily ADX of 45 confirms that a meaningful trend is in place even as the moving-average signal fluctuates during a volatile session.
