According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin has triggered a key on-chain valuation signal that historically precedes major market expansions. The firm’s MVRV Momentum Oscillator—a measure of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio relative to its 365-day moving average—has crossed back into positive territory.
The oscillator is calculated by dividing the MVRV ratio by its one-year moving average and subtracting one. A reading above zero indicates that the MVRV ratio is trading above its annual trend. Glassnode’s chart, spanning 2016 through 2026, highlights that the indicator has just breached this threshold, visually mirroring crossover events observed in 2019 and 2023.
Decoding the Glassnode Chart
The upper panel overlays Bitcoin’s price (grey line, logarithmic scale) with the MVRV Momentum metric. The critical 1.0 level serves as the dividing line: values above 1.0 (green) signal that MVRV exceeds its 365-day average, while values below (red) indicate the opposite. At the chart’s far right, the metric has climbed out of the red zone and pierced the 1.0 boundary—a transition Glassnode has circled in green.
This crossover signifies that the MVRV ratio has caught up to its annual average, not that the ratio itself equals 1.0.
Historical Precedents: 2019 and 2023
The first highlighted crossover occurred in 2019 following the 2018 bear market. After an extended period of negative momentum, the oscillator recovered through 1.0 and accelerated into positive territory as Bitcoin exited its cycle lows.
The second instance appeared in 2023 after the 2022 downturn. Similarly, the indicator crossed above its annual mean and remained predominantly positive throughout the subsequent recovery and expansion into 2024.
Both episodes share a consistent sequence: a prolonged negative phase, recovery toward the 1.0 threshold, a decisive crossover, sustained positive momentum, and a subsequent major Bitcoin price expansion.
Contextualizing the 2024–2026 Cycle
The current signal is notable because it did not emerge immediately after the prior advance. Throughout 2023 and 2024, MVRV momentum was strongly positive, peaking near 1.6–1.7 times the annual mean. Momentum then deteriorated, oscillating around the 1.0 boundary before entering a persistent decline through 2025–2026, bottoming near 0.6—one of the deepest negative readings in recent history.
The sharp recovery from this depressed level back through 1.0 represents the specific shift Glassnode is emphasizing.
Absolute MVRV Levels Remain Moderate
The lower panel provides crucial context by displaying the raw MVRV Ratio (orange line) against its all-time mean of approximately 1.8 (dashed line). Currently, the MVRV Ratio sits near 1.5–1.6, comfortably below the historical average despite the positive momentum signal.
This distinction is vital: the metric is not flashing a valuation extreme. Previous cycle peaks in 2017 and 2021 saw MVRV readings above 4.0. The current structure reflects a recovery in momentum relative to the annual trend, not an overheated market.
Market Cycle Implications
From a cycle perspective, the chart outlines three recent phases. The 2025–2026 decline below the 365-day average corresponds to a contraction or markdown phase. The subsequent bottoming and sideways action suggest stabilization and potential re-accumulation. The latest crossover above 1.0 marks the first evidence on this metric of a regime shift toward positive momentum.
Critically, this is a momentum crossover—not a valuation peak.
Why the Comparison Matters
Glassnode’s comparison to 2019 and 2023 rests on structural similarity in the indicator, not a forecast that Bitcoin will replicate those exact price trajectories. In all three cases, MVRV momentum transitioned from an extended period below its 365-day mean to a recovery through it—following the 2018 bear market, the 2022 bear market, and now the 2025–2026 negative momentum phase, respectively.
Bottom Line
The most significant takeaway is the confluence of three factors: MVRV momentum has rebounded from roughly 0.6, reclaimed the 1.0 regime boundary, and crossed above its 365-day mean while the absolute MVRV Ratio remains below its 1.8 historical average. On the historical examples Glassnode selects, the 2019 and 2023 crossovers coincided with major transitions from contracting conditions into expansion phases. The 2026 chart has now reached that same technical threshold; the subsequent price path remains unwritten.
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