The 2027 Calder Trophy race is already crowded with candidates before the preseason has even concluded. While such competitions typically feature top draft picks, this rookie class is unusually deep and different. The Flyers boast Porter Martone, and the Maple Leafs have Gavin McKenna ranked atop fan boards, having already tasted NHL action. Yet one name continues to generate buzz among fans and analysts: Ivar Stenberg.
San Jose Sharks fans have ample reason for excitement. Selected second overall, Stenberg is a legitimate threat to capture rookie of the year honors.
Betting markets reflect this sentiment. Stenberg has climbed to third on nearly every Calder board, with odds between +575 and +700, ahead of Cole Hutson and Anton Frondell. One Sportsbook Review analyst even picked him to win outright. That positioning is remarkable for a player yet to skate an NHL regular-season game, underscoring how highly the hockey world values his talent and circumstances.
That situation underpins the case. The Sharks are cultivating one of the league’s most enviable young cores, and if Stenberg secures a scoring role, the players around him could dramatically accelerate his production. The prospect of skating alongside Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, and Michael Misa is enough to boost any rookie’s counting stats. At Rookie Faceoff, he offered an early glimpse, scoring twice in 25 seconds on a line with Misa and Igor Chernyshov.
The Case Beyond the Hype
Stenberg’s candidacy is not built on projection alone. His draft season was among the best by a teenager in Swedish Hockey League history. He recorded 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 43 games with Frolunda, the fifth-highest total ever by a player 18 or younger in Sweden’s top professional league. Producing at that rate against grown men is the strongest possible signal that his game will translate.
He backed it up internationally. Stenberg recorded 10 points in seven games during Sweden’s gold-medal run at the 2026 World Juniors, dominating a tournament full of future NHL players. Scouts consistently praise his elite hockey IQ, high-end playmaking, deceptive wrist shot, and relentless motor. NHL Central Scouting ranked him the top international skater in the entire draft class. As Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis noted, this prospect’s floor is very, very high.
Why He Stands Above the Favorites
Here is where Stenberg’s case becomes genuinely compelling relative to the two players ahead of him. Compared to Martone, Stenberg has far more talented linemates to work with. The Flyers cannot provide the same level of offensive support as the Sharks, and a rookie’s Calder chances often depend on the quality of the players feeding him the puck. In San Jose, Stenberg could step directly into a scoring role with elite finishers around him.
Compared to McKenna, Stenberg holds a different advantage. He has already spent a full season competing against professional men in a demanding European league, which should ease his adjustment to the NHL’s size and speed. McKenna, despite his brilliance, is moving up from junior hockey. That pro seasoning could matter enormously over the grind of an 84-game schedule, particularly in the early months when many rookies struggle to adapt.
There is also a structural reason to like his odds. San Jose is trying to make the playoffs, but the organization is clearly prioritizing the long-term development of its young core. That likely means a longer rope and more consistent ice time for Stenberg, even through inevitable rookie slumps. A high pick on a rebuilding team that has every incentive to let him play through mistakes is exactly the profile that produces Calder winners.
None of this makes Stenberg the favorite, and it would be dishonest to suggest the path is clear. Martone and McKenna are ahead of him for good reason, and the left side of San Jose’s lineup is crowded enough that his exact role is not guaranteed. Rookies also rarely follow a linear path, and a slow start or a checking-line assignment could quickly dim his chances.
But he has everything he needs. Elite talent, a proven track record against pros, the best supporting cast of any rookie in the race, and an organization motivated to play him. If Stenberg lands on a line with Celebrini and holds it, the player currently third on the odds board could very well finish first. The Calder is a long shot, but with Stenberg, it is far from a wild one.