Pakistan Races to Secure Winter LNG Supplies as Qatar Extends Force Majeure

Its reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) intensified as QatarEnergy extended force majeure notices on deliveries to Pakistan until November 5, raising concerns over gas availability during the upcoming peak winter months, a senior government official told Arab News on Tuesday.

Pakistan depends heavily on imported LNG to meet demand from its power, industrial, and domestic sectors, and typically receives an average of nine cargoes per month from Qatar under long-term government-to-government agreements. However, supplies have been severely disrupted since March, when QatarEnergy first declared force majeure following an Iranian attack on a major gas facility. As one of the LNG producers hardest hit by the escalating US-Iran conflict that began in February, Qatar has seen its export capacity significantly reduced from pre-conflict levels.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior Pakistani official involved in LNG procurement said the country had received only nine cargoes from Qatar since March and had purchased seven additional cargoes on the international spot market through July to compensate for disrupted supplies. Islamabad is now seeking further cargoes from Qatar and alternative suppliers ahead of winter, with officials hopeful of securing two additional shipments next month despite having received no formal assurances yet.

“In winter, we have high demand,” the official explained. “In November, we will require three or four cargoes, while in December we will need seven to eight, and in January, 10 to 11 cargoes.” He noted that peak winter conditions typically begin in December when colder weather begins affecting Sindh and South Punjab regions.

Pakistan managed to receive two LNG cargoes from Qatar in September at pre-conflict rates, thanks to diplomatic efforts aimed at maintaining some continuity of supply despite the ongoing force majeure situation. “We hope to receive a few more LNG cargoes from Qatar, much like the two we received in September through Pakistan’s diplomatic initiatives,” the official added.

“The decision to purchase new spot LNG cargoes will be made by the government at the highest level, depending on pricing and the nation’s requirements,” he emphasized.

The Ministry of Petroleum declined to comment officially, with its spokesman Zafar Abbas stating that the matter remains under government-level review. When contacted, a representative from Pakistan State Oil (PSO), which procures LNG on behalf of the government, confirmed that purchasing decisions rest solely with the ministry and cannot be made independently by PSO.

A senior official from one of Pakistan’s major gas utility companies expressed cautious optimism, noting that there is currently no immediate gas crisis. “Let’s hope the force majeure isn’t extended beyond November,” he said anonymously.

Winter energy demands pose particular challenges for Pakistan due to insufficient domestic gas production, making imported LNG essential for maintaining system balance. Another energy sector official warned that the country may require approximately nine LNG cargoes each month during winter, complicating supply stability for both Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) and Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) in meeting obligations to domestic and industrial consumers if Qatari deliveries remain restricted.

While power sector demand is expected to decline during winter months, the official cautioned that pressure on the gas network will likely increase from household consumption and industrial activity. Prolonged shortages could push more consumers toward liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders, potentially driving up prices as demand surges across households and businesses.

CONTINGENCY PLANNING

The Pakistan Business Forum (PBF) recently flagged the extension of QatarEnergy’s force majeure as a critical warning ahead of winter, urging the government to develop a comprehensive contingency strategy focused especially on electricity generation and fertilizer production. Although the government has not disclosed priority sectors in case of shortages, the forum advocated for prioritizing productive industries to safeguard economic stability.

“Protecting domestic consumers is important, but allowing unplanned gas shortages to impact industry, fertilizers, and power generation could result in much larger economic costs—through higher electricity tariffs, reduced manufacturing output, lower agricultural yields, and increased import burdens,” said PBF Chief Organizer Ahmad Jawad.

Jawad called on Islamabad to diversify its LNG sourcing strategy and acquire spot market cargoes wherever commercially viable, while also negotiating flexible payment terms amid intensifying competition for winter LNG supplies globally. He further urged exploration of enhanced energy cooperation with neighboring Iran, contingent upon adherence to international obligations and appropriate bilateral frameworks.

Additionally, the PBF official recommended establishing a clear winter gas allocation plan centered around safeguarding fertilizer production. “Fertilizer output directly impacts food security; any sustained disruption in gas supply to these facilities risks reducing local urea availability and inflating the national import bill,” Jawad warned.

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