An internal assessment prepared for the Paris police department, subsequently leaked to the press, examined the launch of the movement in Seine-Saint-Denis. It concluded that students were being “incited by far-left factions within student unions… and political groups such as… LFI.”
The document stated the tensions “could be part of a flame-kindling strategy… aimed at imposing their ideas ahead of the national elections”.
To substantiate this, the report cited the presence of demonstrators who were not themselves lycéens, the ambiguous nature of the demands, the display of Palestinian and Algerian flags, and the use of tactics – such as calling for supplementary protests at police-stations – drawn from the radical-left playbook.
LFI strongly denies engaging in anything beyond offering its usual support to a movement it considers legitimate. On Thursday, Mélenchon urged students to avoid violence “which only serves our enemies’ interests”.
Yet opponents believe the 75-year-old veteran – who has a strong likelihood of advancing to the May presidential runoff, potentially against the hard-right’s Marine Le Pen – is fully aware of his actions.
Polling indicates he enjoys substantial backing – around 40% – among 18-24 year-olds in France, concentrated in the populous, high-immigration city suburbs where his messaging around a “new France” and “creolisation” is well received.
However, young people also constitute the largest group of abstainers in French elections. Consequently, the strategy – as the vote approaches – will involve constant reminders to this demographic that the LFI stands with them and that their vote matters.
Whether this suffices to guarantee a Mélenchon victory remains uncertain. He must undoubtedly take seriously the surveys showing him losing decisively in a run-off against Le Pen.
Should that scenario materialize, France would find itself in highly unstable territory – for which the recent student protests would indeed have served as an early warning.