The EUR/CHF pair established a short-term peak at 0.9485 last week before experiencing a sharp decline. The selling pressure eased after the pair reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.8979–0.9485 range at 0.9292. The initial bias for the week is now neutral. A break above 0.9371 could trigger a stronger rebound toward the 0.9485 high, while a sustained move below 0.9292 would increase the likelihood of a bearish reversal, targeting the 61.8% retracement at 0.9172.
On a broader timeframe, the rebound from the 0.8979 medium-term bottom is at minimum retracing the decline from the 2024 high of 0.9928, with potential to evolve into a medium-term uptrend. The next major resistance lies at 0.9660. This bullish scenario remains valid as long as the 0.9264 support level holds. However, a decisive break below 0.9264 would suggest that the rally from 0.8979 may have already completed as a three-wave corrective structure, renewing medium-term bearish pressure.
From a long-term perspective, the break of the 0.9407 support-turned-resistance level (the 2022 low) indicates that the downtrend from the 2018 high of 1.2004 may have concluded with a five-wave decline to 0.8979. This interpretation is reinforced by bullish divergence on both weekly and monthly MACD indicators. The next upside target is the 55-day monthly EMA, currently at 0.9632. A firm break above that level would open the path to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2004–0.8979 move at 1.0135 on a medium-term basis.
