The USD/CAD pair extended its advance from 1.3730, surpassing the 1.4247 level last week. The near‑term bias stays bullish, and a sustained move above 1.4247 points to a 100% projection of the swing from 1.3480 to 1.4247, targeting 1.4497. However, a bearish divergence on the 4‑hour MACD warns that a breach of the 1.4153 support could signal a short‑term top, shifting the outlook to the downside for a deeper pullback.
Looking at the broader picture, the current uptrend from 1.3480 appears to be reversing the prior decline from the 2025 high of 1.4791. A decisive break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.4290 (the 1.4791‑1.3480 swing) would set the stage for a retest of the 1.4791 peak. Conversely, failure to clear 1.4290 would revive medium‑term bearish pressure.
From a longer‑term perspective, the decline from 1.4791 may be correcting the multi‑year rally that began at the 2007 low of 0.9056. A firm break below the 1.3480 support and a sustained close under the 55‑period moving average (currently at 1.3670) could target the 38.2% retracement of the 0.9056‑1.4791 move at 1.2600. However, a strong rebound from the 55‑MA would keep the medium‑term bullish trend intact.
The pair’s recent momentum suggests the corrective wave may extend further if bearish pressure builds. A break of the 1.3480 support zone coupled with a close below the 55‑period moving average (now around 1.3670) could open the door for a decline toward the 38.2% retracement level of the 0.9056‑1.4791 rally, positioned at 1.2600. Conversely, a robust rebound from the 55‑MA would likely sustain the medium‑term bullish bias.
