Latvians Vote in Parliamentary Election Amid Cost‑of‑Living Worries and Russian Tensions

Polls opened on Saturday in Latvia’s parliamentary election, shaped by worries over neighbouring Russia and the cost‑of‑living crisis. The Baltic state remains a cornerstone of NATO’s eastern flank, and analysts note broad backing for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

“The stance towards Russia is the main reason Latvians look toward the West, NATO and Europe,” a Western diplomat in Riga said, adding that major political shifts seem unlikely.

Polls forecast the centre‑right United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, to become the largest party in Saturday’s vote.

Yet his centre‑right coalition — also comprising the centrist New Unity, the nationalist National Alliance and the Union of Greens and Farmers — is expected to emerge weakened.

Partial results are anticipated Saturday evening, with preliminary official figures due Sunday.

The current governing coalition consists of United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers and the National Alliance. Surveys suggest the bloc is unlikely to retain power in its present form after the election.

Security at the top of voters’ minds

Security tops voters’ concerns in a nation that borders Russia and was occupied and governed by Moscow for much of the 20th century.

According to Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, “defence and security will be the priority.” Apart from a few dissenting voices, he noted there is broad consensus on keeping military spending near five percent of GDP and on supporting Ukraine.

But the economy remains a major worry for voters.

Latvia is the least affluent of the three Baltic states in terms of living standards, even though it has narrowed the gap since joining the EU in 2004.

Growth is sluggish, with voters citing the cost of living, the state of healthcare and public‑finance challenges, exacerbated by stark regional disparities.

Around Riga, GDP per capita reached 101 % of the EU average in 2024, according to a Brussels report.

In other regions the figure falls below 50 %.

The eastern region of Latgale — home to a large Russian‑speaking majority and experiencing significant depopulation — feels the strain most acutely.

“The most pressing issue is the shortage of young people and good jobs,” said Aigars Soikants, 30, a resident of Daugavpils, Latvia’s second‑largest city, to AFP.

“There isn’t enough work (…) People are leaving,” he added, noting that 90 % of Daugavpils’ residents speak Russian.

He says he intends to back a centrist or right‑wing party that serves the country’s interests.

– Rise of populists –

As elsewhere in Europe, economic anxieties have boosted populist parties ahead of the vote.

The Sovereign Power (Suverena vara, SV) party, which criticises aid to Ukraine and higher military spending, polls at around nine percent and could finish second in parliament.

Detractors label it pro‑Russian; led by Julija Stepanenko, it highlights Latvia’s economic woes.

The party is politically isolated and, barring a major upset, stands little chance of joining any future governing coalition.

Carefully avoiding the word “Ukraine,” Vjaceslavs Stepanenko — head of SV’s local list in Latgale and husband of the party’s chairwoman — urges “ending all aid to any foreign state.”

“We are the ones who need help, not the other way around,” he told AFP.

Another populist force, Latvia First (LPV), also polls at nine percent; its businessman leader Ainars Slesers is frequently likened to former US President Donald Trump.

The party draws support with a conservative platform and promises of economic renewal, and — unlike SV — it could become an essential kingmaker in coalition talks.

“The key question is whether the United List will agree to work with Slesers’ party,” remarked political analyst Sigita Struberga.

– Russian-speaking vote –

For years Russian‑speakers rallied behind the Harmony party, but this group — about 35 % of Latvia’s population — no longer votes as a single bloc.

Harmony, which won several parliamentary elections without ever entering government, vanished from parliament in 2022 and now has little prospect of a return.

“We should not treat Russian‑speaking voters as a monolith with uniform behaviour,” said analyst Kits.

While identity concerns persist, an increasing share of this electorate now bases its choice on economic and social factors.

“I will vote for Slesers’ party,” said Valentin Trofimov, a 62‑year‑old watch‑repairman from Daugavpils, speaking to AFP.

In his view the country “lacks money for everything,” covering transport, education and medicine.

“Wages are far too low,” he added.

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