Final Month in the Midterms: Democrats Push Ahead as Republicans Bet Big on Spending

Washington, D.C. – Democrats appear to be gaining momentum as the United States midterm elections enter their final month, while Republicans are leaning on stronger cash reserves and aggressive defensive spending.

That dynamic is shaping the national conversation ahead of the November vote, as congressional races across the country approach the finish line.

With control of the House of Representatives and the Senate on the line, Democrats are beginning October with an unexpectedly favorable outlook, according to election analysts who say more seats are looking competitive than earlier in the cycle.

Republicans, by contrast, seem to be in a defensive posture, directing large sums of money into contests once considered safe and boosting funding for a small number of high-profile races.

President Donald Trump, the party’s prominent standard-bearer who has framed the election as a referendum on his presidency, enters the final month with exceptionally low approval ratings.

The latest Associated Press-NORC poll, released on Thursday, found that 31 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s job performance, the lowest level recorded during either of his two terms. Only 26 percent approved of his handling of the economy, two points below the lowest rating for former President Joe Biden on the same issue.

Polls continue to show that voters place the economy at the top of their concerns, with issues such as gasoline prices, elevated by the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, dominating their thinking. Immigration and corruption have also consistently ranked high.

“The broad stroke is that Americans are disappointed, bordering on angry that President Trump hasn’t delivered on the core promises he made when he won re-election,” said Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, D.C.

Democratic prospects improve in the House

Independent political trackers have long projected that Democrats will take control of the House in the November 3 election.

Winning a majority in the 435-seat chamber from Republicans would give the party renewed legislative power, allowing it to increase pressure on President Trump and launch investigations into his administration’s conduct. Senior Democrats have already indicated that probes into the business dealings of Trump’s family would be among their top priorities.

Two nonpartisan forecasting authorities, the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball, recently concluded that the odds of Democrats winning the House have improved.

The Cook Political Report recently moved 15 House races in the Democrats’ direction, shifting several contests from “toss-up” to “leans Democrat” and some from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”

One notable change involved a Texas border district represented by Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Her district reflected a broader shift among Latino voters toward Trump in 2024. Once seen as holding the advantage over her challenger, Democrat Bobby Pulido, De La Cruz’s race is now rated by Cook as a “toss-up.”

Overall, the political analysis organization now projects that Democrats are positioned to win between five and 15 House seats.

Senate races remain highly competitive

With 30 days remaining, “there’s much more drama in the Senate than the House races,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

What was once considered an unlikely goal for Democrats, who need a net gain of at least four seats to capture a slim majority, has moved within a more achievable range.

Unlike the House, where all 435 seats are up for election, only 35 Senate seats are being decided in this cycle, making the path to control more constrained.

“The trajectory of the polling since Labor Day has generally been that a bad Republican environment is just getting worse,” Kondik said, adding that “the Senate just seems to get more and more competitive as the cycle has gone on.”

Kondik cautioned that polling quality can vary by region, noting that assessing the political mood in the Midwest has been particularly challenging for pollsters.

Still, in North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is expected to defeat former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley in a race for a Senate seat currently held by Republicans. Top conservative donors have already begun shifting funds away from that contest.

Surveys have consistently shown Democratic leads in three other races for Republican-held seats: Democrat James Talarico against Republican Ken Paxton in Texas; Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown against incumbent Republican Senator John Husted in Ohio; and Democrat Mary Peltola against Republican Dan Sullivan in Alaska.

Races for Republican-held Senate seats in Iowa, between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, and in Maine, between incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, remain within one point, according to Real Clear Politics polling averages.

Democrats also have maintained consistent polling leads in Senate races in Georgia, New Hampshire and Michigan, where the party currently holds the seats.

Record-level spending shapes the contest

For Republicans, spending may offer a path back, as this year’s midterm race continues the national trend of enormous private investment in political advertising.

At least $4 billion had been spent on gubernatorial and congressional midterm advertising by September 17, putting the cycle on track to become “perhaps the most expensive midterm on record,” according to Michael Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project.

Republicans entered September with a substantial funding advantage. The Republican National Committee had $125.6 million in cash, while the Democratic National Committee had $16.9 million and carried $17.6 million in debt.

When the three major committees associated with each party were included, the Republican Party had $233.4 million in cash, compared with $130.4 million for the Democratic Party, according to a CNBC analysis.

Trip Yang, a Democratic strategist based in New York City, told Al Jazeera that such spending can be used either to boost a candidate’s name recognition or to attack an opponent.

According to AdImpact, Republicans and their allies were expected to spend $888 million on advertising from mid-September through Election Day, compared with $666 million for Democrats and their supporters.

The company found that pro-Republican advertising was likely to be especially heavy in key Senate races in Ohio, Texas and Michigan, with Republican spending projected to exceed Democratic spending by at least $24 million in each state.

Yang said that Trump’s low popularity means that “Republicans spending millions or hundreds of millions of dollars improving their candidates’ images by itself may not be enough.”

“If you’re a little bit handicapped because your president is so toxic, you try to spend your hundreds of millions of dollars attacking the Democrats to make it more of a food fight,” he said.

A New York Times analysis estimated that at least $1 billion in so-called “dark money” had been poured into the midterms by the end of August. The term describes spending in which donor identities are concealed, often through nonprofit and shell-company contributions to Super PACs.

Industry groups, including those supporting crypto, artificial intelligence and online betting companies, are expected to be major spenders in key races, although their support often crosses traditional partisan lines.

Trump has pledged to spend between $400 million and $500 million through his MAGA Inc. Super PAC, though it has so far spent about $15 million to support Paxton’s Senate campaign in Texas.

Pro-Paxton ad reservations in September far outpaced those for Talarico, according to AdImpact data analyzed by NPR, with $94 million allocated to support the Republican compared with $30 million for the Democrat.

Trump’s role in the final stretch

Trump has pledged to spend the final days before the election in continuous campaign mode, after urging supporters at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, to “vote like I’m on the ballot.”

His plan to travel across the country for rallies reflects a “base turnout” strategy intended to energize voters already loyal to the Republican Party, according to Olsen.

“But the Republican problem is a persuasion problem with people in the middle,” Olsen said. “Trump’s campaigning might help with some turnout, but their real problem is persuasion, and it’s not something that’s going to help with that in the slightest.”

Polls have signaled trouble for Republicans in efforts to sway independents. A September 23 PBS News, NPR and Marist poll found that unaffiliated voters were leaning toward Democrats at 57 percent, compared with 32 percent leaning toward Republicans.

The situation has created a dilemma for some prominent Republican candidates over whether to distance themselves from the president on his most controversial policies, according to Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist University Institute for Public Opinion.

Senate candidates Ashley Hinson in Iowa, John Husted in Ohio and Mike Rogers in Michigan recently created some distance between themselves and Trump on the war with Iran.

One Republican House candidate, Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, has criticized Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement policies as she seeks to rally Latino voters in South Florida.

Trump, in turn, reposted a social media message calling Salazar a “backstabber.”

“You need to have, you know, something else going for you other than endorsement of Trump,” Miringoff said. “Some Republicans are starting to have self-preservation kick in because they’re concerned.”

What could alter the outcome?

Achieving a broad shift in public opinion remains a difficult task for Republicans in the final stretch of the race.

Many of the defining issues are unlikely to change before November, with Trump signaling a possible escalation with Iran after the vote while downplaying the prospect of short-term relief on affordability.

At the same time, the president has not ruled out actions that rights groups say could disrupt voter turnout. Most recently, he declined to commit to avoiding invocation of the Insurrection Act or declaration of a state of emergency surrounding the election during an interview with Time magazine.

Miringoff said he believes “the potential for more than just a marginal shift is there,” adding that some Democratic candidates have struggled to present clear visions beyond opposition to Trump.

“The result isn’t formed in concrete,” he said, “to the degree that there’s going to be a lot of money still spent.”

Olsen saw less room for Republicans to change course.

“Republicans have the time and the resources to change the outcome with respect to a few close Senate races,” Olsen said. “But to change direction, they would need something that would be apocalyptic.”

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