In brief
- Bitcoin traded around $86,000 on Monday, roughly $1,200 below the $87,354 swing high that has capped the rally.
- Macroeconomic winds have turned in Bitcoin’s favor, with potential future catalysts around the corner.
- The daily chart has painted a decidedly bullish picture, with Bitcoin entering a second, stronger “golden cross.”
Bitcoin enters the week with renewed momentum, approaching but not yet breaking through a key resistance level.
Bitcoin traded near $86,100 Monday morning, gaining 1.14% over 24 hours with a market cap of $1.73 trillion. The broader crypto market stands at $2.94 trillion, up 1.36%, while the Fear & Greed Index holds at 68, remaining in “greed” territory after cooling from “extreme greed” levels last month.
The catalyst was Friday’s employment report, which disappointed economists. U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, about a third of the forecast, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
The data was revised downward even further: July’s 21,000-job gain became a 10,000-job loss, August dropped from 162,000 to 133,000, and annual wage growth decelerated to 3.0%.
Weak labor data benefits risk assets—an unusual but familiar dynamic in this market cycle.
The Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous vote. A week before Friday’s report, bond traders gave an October hike a 64% chance. After it, those odds fell to roughly 16%-22%, depending on the snapshot.
It is the mirror image of last month. On September 4, a blowout August report sent Bitcoin sliding more than 2% to near $79,300 as hike bets rose. Bitcoin now trades about 8% above that level.
Equities rallied Friday with the S&P 500 closing at 7,722.72 (+0.73%), the Nasdaq at 27,190.86 (+1.19%), and the Dow at 51,176.96 (+0.49%). Nvidia reached a new record, and futures climbed Sunday evening.
Altcoins showed mixed results: Ethereum at $2,711 (+0.59%), XRP at $1.51 (+0.81%), while Solana dipped 0.91% to $120.31. All top-10 altcoins traded green, but none moved more than 1% except Hyperliquid, which surged 3.68% daily to $93.17 and 6% weekly.
ETF inflows remain steady. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $189.84 million in net inflows, bringing total net assets to $101.1 billion, according to Decrypt data.
Bitcoin Price: Rejected at Resistance, But Momentum Intact
The daily chart shows Bitcoin still facing resistance at the $87,354 highs.
Momentum indicators remain robust. The RSI sits at 64.7—elevated but not yet overbought—while the ADX reads 43.4, signaling a strong trend.
Exponential moving averages weight recent prices more heavily. A golden cross forms when a faster EMA crosses above a slower one. The 50-day EMA already sits above the 200-day—the classic golden cross that formed in mid-September, when Bitcoin posted its second-strongest monthly performance ever.
An even stronger signal has emerged: the 100-day EMA has now also crossed above the 200-day, visible as the dotted white line on the chart below.
The 100/200 cross is more significant because it’s harder to manufacture. A rapid two-month rebound can push the 50-day EMA above the 200-day, but lifting the slower 100-day EMA requires sustained elevated prices over months—indicating Bitcoin has rebuilt its medium-term trend after July’s sub-$60,000 trough.
Together, these dual crosses confirm that both short-term and medium-term averages sit above the long-term baseline—a second layer of validation. The caveat: EMAs are lagging indicators, confirming trends that have already formed rather than forecasting future moves.
On Myriad, Decrypt’s parent company Dastan’s prediction market, traders are betting on further upside. The October highs market prices in an $87,500 test at 80%, $90,000 at 59%, $95,000 at 25%, and $100,000 at 12%.
The week ahead offers several key catalysts: Fed September meeting minutes on Wednesday, October 7 at 2:00 p.m. ET; September CPI data from the BLS on October 14; and the Fed’s next policy meeting on October 27-28, with a press conference on October 28 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.