4chan’s Bitcoin Cycle Theory Suggests Today Could Mark the End of Crypto Winter

In brief

• A 4chan post dated December 12, 2023, forecast a Bitcoin peak on October 6, 2025, a target the asset reached precisely.
• Applying the same 364-day downtrend interval suggests the cycle floor arrives October 5, 2026, though BTC currently trades near $86,000, roughly 32% below its peak.
• Bitcoin has already dipped to approximately $57,000 this year, and analyst Benjamin Cowen identifies a potential fourth-quarter support level near $44,000.

Back on December 12, 2023, 4chan member SBC7H7La shared a chart displaying a notable pattern and a bold assertion: Bitcoin’s next market top would occur on October 6, 2025.

Bitcoin delivered on this promise, reaching an all-time high slightly above $126,000 on that date. The underlying logic was rooted in numerology: prior lows to highs spanned 1,064 days, highs to lows spanned 364 days, and the sequence had repeated twice consecutively. The poster expressed confidence that this cycle simulation would continue.

And the prophecy came true. Despite valid skepticism, the “simulation” repeated itself as Bitcoin touched $126,198.07 on October 6, 2025.

Since then, traders have mostly seen declines. By late June, Bitcoin sat 52% below its peak. Crypto asset manager 21Shares observed at the time that this pullback remained milder than the 80% or greater bear markets seen in previous cycles.

Now, the second half of the forecast. Adding 364 days to October 6, 2025 brings us to October 5, 2026. Today. Under the 4chan model, this is where the cycle bottoms.

Of course, this is not official advice, but when market behavior aligns with the prediction, it demands attention.

Trading near $86,100 at the start of the day, the asset is displaying a bullish configuration precisely today. Down nearly 30% from its all-time high but up about 2% in the session, the move comes following a jobs report indicating the U.S. economy added just 29,000 positions in September, well short of the 90,000 forecast by economists.

BitcoinBTC · USD

$85,822+2.72%

24H7D1M1YYTD

Sep 28Sep 30Oct 2Oct 4Oct 5

$86.8k$85.5k$84.2k$83.0k

24h HighHigh$86,949

24h LowLow$85,010

VolVol$1.5B

Market projectionsOdds by Myriad

→

$50$100$500

Buy

While weak employment data can typically signal trouble, for investors it implies the Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates steady rather than hiking again. Stable rates—or the absence of further increases—are precisely what drives capital into risk assets like Bitcoin.

That said, Bitcoin found its floor in July around $57,000, meaning it currently sits roughly 50% above that low.

Benjamin Cowen, a respected fundamental analyst who dates the accumulation phase from July 1, still foresees potential for another downward leg. Conversely, the technical setup appears somewhat more optimistic.

However, trusting a speculative 4chan model over established analysis remains a personal decision for each investor.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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