Crypto Traders Eye October Seasonality as Market Awaits Clear Breakout

Market Overview

The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation stood at $2.76T on Monday, 2.5% below the level recorded a week earlier. The market has spent the past four days trading in a tight range around its 50-day moving average, finding support near $2.70T while failing to muster enough momentum to push past $2.80T. Price action over the last 24 hours offers tentative encouragement, with large-cap coins advancing between 1% and 2%. Among the most liquid assets, gainers outnumber decliners by nearly two to one. Hyperliquid, Uniswap, and Solana led the advance, each rising just over 2%. The steepest losses were recorded in Hedera (−3.8%), Basic Attention Token (−2.4%), and Aptos (−2.2%). Since traditional markets often form a local bottom toward the end of October, investors in major cryptocurrencies are counting on seasonal trends to help recover last week’s losses.

Bitcoin rose 1.4% over the past 24 hours to $82.8K. Throughout the weekend, buyers continued to purchase dips near the 50-day moving average, providing a constructive backdrop for the wider cryptocurrency market. Improved risk appetite during Asian trading supported BTC, though the recent advance is better characterised as a rebound than a sustained resumption of upward momentum. Last summer, similar range-bound conditions persisted for a month, and it took a strong surge on 19 August to signal the beginning of a bull run.

News Background

Outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for a second consecutive week, totalling $228.6 million. US spot Ethereum ETFs experienced outflows for a third straight week, amounting to $320 million.

According to Chainalysis, the United States is accumulating Bitcoin and has become a net importer of the cryptocurrency for the first time since 2022, even as other nations actively purchase dollars. American investors increasingly regard Bitcoin as a scarce safe-haven asset.

CryptoQuant data shows that since the end of August, crypto whales have increased their holdings by 60,000 bitcoins to nearly 3 million BTC. Retaining these accumulated coins could offset sales from profit-taking investors and support further price appreciation.

Bitcoin’s 12-month average daily volatility has declined to 43%, putting it roughly in line with most S&P 500 constituents. Only 19% of the index’s shares compare favourably with Bitcoin on this measure. Grayscale attributes the lower volatility to growing institutional participation and the introduction of regulated spot ETFs.

French firm Capital B reported a net loss of €69.5 million ($78.1 million) for the first half of 2026, driven by a decline in the value of its Bitcoin reserves. Nonetheless, the company continued to accumulate cryptocurrency, raising its holdings to 3,538 BTC by the end of September from 2,823 BTC in January.

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