The United Nations issued a stark warning Wednesday that the current El Niño weather phenomenon could reach unprecedented intensity, potentially exceeding the monitoring thresholds used for the past four decades. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) urged nations to take immediate anticipatory action to mitigate severe humanitarian and economic consequences.
“The current El Niño event could be unprecedented in strength. Literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, during a press briefing in Geneva. She noted the phenomenon is expected to peak toward the end of 2026, though its impacts will persist well beyond that period.
According to the WMO’s latest global seasonal climate update, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean—the epicenter of El Niño—may surge to 3.8°C above average between November and January. This anomaly far exceeds typical El Niño parameters and is projected to disrupt weather patterns worldwide.
The naturally occurring cycle, which typically recurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months, is compounding the effects of human-induced climate change, driving global temperatures higher. Saulo was joined by UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher, who characterized the looming event as a “wrecking ball” of extreme heat, droughts, and floods poised to trigger massive humanitarian fallout.
“The damage will not stay in the countries in the immediate path of this El Niño,” Fletcher warned. “It will create economic shocks for the global economy and drive further conflict, displacement, and migration. I am sounding the alarm that the humanitarian system… cannot alone cope with a threat on this scale.”
Fletcher called on governments, development banks, and international financial institutions to mobilize funding proactively—before disaster strikes rather than after. He announced the release of $50 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund to support 11 frontline nations, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan.
“The choice is clear: we can wait for disaster or we can invest in resilience,” Fletcher stated. “We cannot prevent El Niño but we can be serious about the challenges ahead.”
El Niño warms surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, altering global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. Conditions oscillate between El Niño, its opposite phase La Niña, and neutral periods.