Bitcoin traded near $80,000 at the time of writing, up 38% from June lows below $58,000. Still, prices remain roughly 35% below the record high of over $126,000. Returning to that peak would require a gain of approximately 53%.
Thorn pointed to bitcoin’s bullish recovery above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it. Five consecutive weekly closes above that level have strengthened his conviction that the market has bottomed.
Positioning also supports the thesis, Thorn argued. Asset managers’ net long exposure through CME bitcoin futures had fallen 57% from the week of the record high, while several major trading firms substantially reduced ETF holdings. That is a sign that fast money has exited, leaving the market in much healthier shape.
“The fast money has left, the base stayed, and everything else is priced for perfection,” Thorn said.
Other investors have been buying the dip. Galaxy said spot bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC following the June low, suggesting renewed directional demand as arbitrage activity declined.
The firm sees rising U.S. debt, persistent deficits, and rising interest costs strengthening bitcoin’s appeal as a fixed-supply asset.
Meanwhile, institutional enthusiasm for stablecoins and tokenization, alongside fading interest in bitcoin, resembles sentiment around previous market lows, according to Thorn.
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