Netanyahu’s Bloc Holds Slim Lead as Israeli Election Heads Toward Deadlock

Jerusalem (AFP) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc held a narrow lead but fell short of a parliamentary majority on Wednesday after roughly half the ballots were tallied in Israel’s consequential general election.

Voters turned out at the highest rate in decades to render a verdict on Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving premier, who has steered the country sharply rightward and launched a series of wars following Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack. Both Netanyahu and his chief rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, pledged to form a government despite neither being projected to secure a governing majority.

With 51.8 percent of votes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc held 55 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Eisenkot’s opposition bloc trailed with 49 seats, while Arab parties captured 16. The partial results remain fluid as counting continues.

Exit polls had shown the two blocs deadlocked at roughly 51 seats each, well below the 61-seat threshold required for a majority.

The most significant gains came from Arab Israeli parties, whose voters mobilized in record numbers against Netanyahu, who has repeatedly warned that their participation would undermine the Jewish nationalist trajectory of his governance.

The arithmetic suggests Eisenkot’s bloc could reach a majority through a coalition arrangement with Arab parties, though Eisenkot ruled out governing with Arab lawmakers during the campaign — a stance mirroring Netanyahu’s contention that a government reliant on Arab votes would lack legitimacy. Arab legislators could alternatively provide outside support for a minority government without formally joining a coalition.

A decisive outcome for either camp could still be weeks away as coalition negotiations unfold, with the prospect of fresh elections if talks collapse. In the interim, a stalemate benefits Netanyahu, who remains caretaker prime minister until a new government takes office. Final results are expected by Thursday evening or Friday morning.

Addressing cheering supporters at a Jerusalem convention center after 3 a.m. Wednesday, the 77-year-old Netanyahu called for a “strong government of the right” and declared that the “Jewish and Zionist majority must unite.” He was uncharacteristically brief and stopped short of claiming outright victory.

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters Wednesday that his endorsement had helped Netanyahu “a lot.”

‘Public Voted for Change’

Speaking to supporters in Tel Aviv, 66-year-old Eisenkot issued a veiled warning to Netanyahu, whom analysts suggest could leverage the ongoing war to push for a unity government.

“Netanyahu, don’t you dare use Israel’s security for your political needs,” Eisenkot said, labeling his rival “a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate or the people’s trust.”

The election unfolded as Israel faces mounting international isolation driven by the war in Iran, the military campaign in Gaza, and escalating settlement construction and settler violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.

Eisenkot largely shares Netanyahu’s security doctrine and backed the Gaza offensive that has devastated the territory. However, he has pledged to foster a more inclusive domestic climate and to rein in violent West Bank settlers.

Following a turnout of nearly 78 percent — the highest since 1999 — Eisenkot ruled out a second election and vowed to move “swiftly” to form a government.

“The public has voted for change,” he said. “A worthy leader would accept the people’s vote of no confidence and announce his retirement from political life today.”

Exit polls projected Arab Israeli lists would win 18 or 19 seats, a sharp increase. Arab citizens of Israel, also known as Palestinian citizens of Israel, comprise roughly 21 percent of the population.

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