Trump’s dilemma: how Israel’s inconclusive election shapes U.S. policy on Iran, Gaza and Congress

By Matt Spetalnick

WASHINGTON, Oct 28 (Reuters) – Israel’s parliamentary vote failed to produce a clear winner, leaving President Donald Trump confronting uncertainty about who will guide the United States’ closest Middle East ally as he deals with threats from Iran and Gaza.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right‑wing bloc secured the most seats in the Knesset but fell short of a parliamentary majority after Tuesday’s vote, despite Trump’s endorsement of the prime minister over a rival alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Neither Netanyahu’s camp nor the opposition appears to have a clear path to forming a new government, marking Israel’s first election since the Hamas‑led Oct. 7 attacks and the ensuing wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

The result sets the stage for a period of difficult coalition negotiations—or possibly another election—while Netanyahu remains in a caretaker role.

The outcome will influence U.S.‑Israeli relations, which have been dominated by the joint fight against Iran, stalled Gaza peace efforts and a measurable decline in American public support for Israel.

This uncertainty arrives at a sensitive moment for Trump, as he and Netanyahu have signaled the possibility of a new round of attacks against Iran.

“Israeli politics can be messy,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East adviser in Democratic and Republican administrations. “From the U.S. perspective, it would be good to get some clarity, but that’s easier said than done.”

WHICH OUTCOME WOULD TRUMP PREFER?

Netanyahu—a seasoned political survivor who has maintained a close, albeit sometimes turbulent, relationship with Trump for decades—may have survived another round. He is Israel’s longest‑serving prime minister and the only one with whom the U.S. president has worked.

Eisenkot, who campaigned as a political outsider and security‑focused former general, saw his chances of forming a government diminish but not disappear. He has not been known to have met Trump.

Some analysts say that creating a broad unity government that keeps Netanyahu in power would serve Trump’s interest in a stable Israeli partner, though neither side has shown a willingness to pursue that route.

When asked whether he would become involved in efforts to form a Netanyahu‑led unity government, Trump told Axios on Wednesday he had not thought about it, adding, “I will take a look.”

WHAT DOES THE ELECTION MEAN FOR THE WAR WITH IRAN?

Chief among the concerns is how Trump might coordinate with Israel on the war against Iran, a conflict that has destabilized the Middle East, disrupted global energy supplies, raised U.S. gasoline prices and lowered Trump’s approval ratings—threatening Republican control of Congress in the November 3 midterms.

In his Oct. 18 endorsement, Trump insisted he wanted Netanyahu to remain in power to help him “finish the job” against Iran. The president later said Netanyahu, who outperformed pre‑election polls, had done “very well” and that his backing had bolstered the Israeli leader.

Trump has repeatedly indicated that the United States and Israel could restart attacks on Iran after the midterms, with some observers—including within Israel—noting that Netanyahu might view such action as a way to strengthen his political standing as a caretaker prime minister.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said any future Israeli leadership would likely align with Trump if the president decides to intensify the current stalemate with Iran’s regional foe.

“It’s hard to imagine any real daylight between them on that point,” said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think tank.

Where Netanyahu and many Israelis have occasionally differed from Trump is on the issue of concessions in now‑stalled negotiations with the Islamic Republic.

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR GAZA PEACE EFFORTS?

Regardless of how Israel’s next government takes shape, there is little indication of any major shift in tough policies toward the Palestinians.

This does not bode well for breaking the diplomatic deadlock between Israel and Hamas or for fully implementing Trump’s Gaza peace plan following the war. In response to the militants’ deadly cross‑border attack, Israel razed much of the enclave and killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.

Administration officials have privately expressed frustration over what they view as Netanyahu’s intransigence, as the Israeli leader has insisted that Hamas must disarm first.

Eisenkot, who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza conflict, emphasized his military credentials during the campaign while positioning himself as a centrist domestically. He has vowed to distance himself from Netanyahu’s far‑right coalition allies but maintains a hawkish security stance that has hardened since the 2023 Hamas attack.

Like Netanyahu, Eisenkot opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas’s military wing must be destroyed.

However, he has pledged to curb violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, an issue that Netanyahu’s government has been accused of tolerating. Settler attacks have drawn criticism from U.S. officials in recent weeks, who fear the West Bank could become another Middle East flashpoint.

WHAT ABOUT ISRAEL’S GROWING ISOLATION?

Even as Israel’s political climate is expected to remain unsettled, Trump may face additional challenges if opinion polls predicting a Democratic takeover of one or both chambers of Congress prove accurate.

Such a shift could increase pressure from Democrats, whose support for Israel has plummeted over its conduct in the Gaza war, to limit billions of dollars in U.S. aid and weapons shipments.

Some members of Trump’s MAGA base have also become increasingly critical of Israel, accusing it of misleading Trump—who campaigned on a promise to avoid foreign military interventions—into believing Iran could be defeated easily.

In a June interview with Axios, Trump warned Netanyahu about Israel’s deepening international isolation, a trend analysts say may be irreversible even with a new government.

(Reporting By Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Don Durfee and Howard Goller)

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