From President to Rebel: Joseph Kabila’s Strategic Pivot to the M23

Policy analyst Henry‑Pacifique Mayala told the BBC that Joseph Kabila has been left with limited avenues to re‑assert his political relevance. “He essentially has no other choice,” Mayala noted.

With a death‑penalty conviction in absentia for treason and U.S. sanctions alleging support for the March 23 (M23) rebel group, Kabila may be seeking guarantees that aligning with the movement will advance his interests, according to Mayala.

“I doubt he is taking this bold step without receiving substantial assurances,” Mayala said, adding that the M23’s combat capability could strengthen Kabila’s bargaining position in future talks with the Congolese government.

Kabila’s involvement also raises concerns that the conflict could expand beyond the eastern region where the insurgency is currently active.

M23’s gains remain concentrated in the eastern provinces, roughly 1,500 km (about 1,000 miles) from the capital, Kinshasa.

While Kabila’s political network may broaden the rebellion’s reach, experts argue that the group likely lacks the capacity to conduct a nationwide military campaign.

The extent of Kabila’s influence across the country also remains uncertain.

During his presidency, following his father Laurent Kabila’s assassination in 2001, Joseph Kabila was often perceived as an outsider in Kinshasa. He was more fluent in Swahili, the lingua franca of eastern DR Congo and East Africa, than in Lingala, the dominant language of the capital.

His father’s rebel movement once marched across the nation from the east, eventually reaching Kinshasa after seven months and seizing power in May 1996, overthrowing longtime dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, who had ruled the country as his personal fiefdom for over three decades.

Although there is little indication that Joseph Kabila’s FRN intends to replicate that historic sweep, he recently compared President Félix Tshisekedi to Mobutu, describing him as a tyrant who imposes his will without adhering to constitutional norms.

“You have a tyrant who wants to impose and dictate what he thinks is right and not necessarily follow the constitution, which is the supreme law of the land,” Kabila told Conspiracy Trackers Great Lakes (CTGL), a research group focused on countering disinformation in the Great Lakes region of Africa.

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