Washington, D.C. / Tokyo – The 2026 U.S. midterm elections opened for voting on Tuesday, setting the stage for a tight contest over control of both chambers of Congress. While most forecasts favor the Democratic Party capturing the House of Representatives, the battle for the Senate is expected to be razor‑thin, with a handful of close races—such as Alaska, where polls remain open past midnight Eastern time—potentially deciding the outcome. Any contested results could trigger recounts or litigation, possibly extending the final tally well beyond election night.
The political backdrop includes heightened expectations that the Trump administration will press ahead with aggressive trade measures, regardless of which party holds Congress. Nomura economists predict “more aggressive trade‑related headlines” after the vote, citing possible tariffs stemming from Section 301 investigations into excess capacity. Existing duties of 10‑12.5 % already affect roughly 60 economies over forced‑labour concerns, and new levies could restore previous tariff levels for key partners that were struck down by the Supreme Court in February.
For China, a fresh round of tariffs would reignite tensions between Beijing and Washington over the next two years. Goldman Sachs China economist Hui Shan notes that a Congress with stronger Democratic control may also introduce additional hawkish policies toward China.
Asian‑American voters, historically leaning Democratic, shifted toward Republicans in 2024 but have since turned increasingly skeptical of the GOP. Survey data from AAPI Data released in October show that Asian‑American adults now favor Democrats on both the economy and immigration. Disapproval of Trump’s economic and foreign‑policy handling has risen sharply, especially among Asian‑American Republicans, with roughly 40 % expressing disapproval, up from about 20 % earlier this year.
The Justice Department has deployed about 1,000 election monitors across all 50 states—its largest coordinated effort and the first to cover every state. The Civil Rights Division is overseeing the operation, which will examine compliance with federal voting‑rights laws while state and local officials remain in contact throughout Election Day. Some state officials and civil‑rights groups have raised concerns about the surge in monitors and its potential to intimidate voters or otherwise interfere with the process.
Early voting has set a new record, with the University of Florida’s Election Lab reporting 59.1 million in‑person and mail‑in ballots cast nationwide—more than half the total for the 2022 midterms. In battleground states such as Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon and Tennessee, early‑vote totals exceeded 70 % of each state’s 2022 turnout. Democratic voters accounted for 43 % of early ballots, compared with 31.4 % for Republicans, though party registration does not guarantee how individuals will vote on Election Day.
Weather disruptions have affected voting in several regions. Flash floods forced polling‑center relocations in eight Florida counties, prompting Governor Ron DeSantis to order temporary voting sites. Similar flooding impacted Arizona, Utah and Colorado, where Utah’s lieutenant governor declared an emergency accommodation allowing affected voters to request electronic ballots. Heavy rain and gusty winds also created challenges in the Midwest and severe storms in eastern Texas.
Energy markets responded to a fresh U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island, reviving supply‑concern worries. Brent crude futures rose 1.8 % to $106.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 2.4 % to $97.08. Asian economies are feeling the impact unevenly; China and India are buffered by domestic coal reserves, whereas Thailand, the Philippines and South Korea remain more exposed due to import reliance. Japan plans to phase out gasoline subsidies starting in December after reinstating them in spring, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent averaging $105 in Q4 before easing to $84 in 2027.
Artificial‑intelligence data‑center projects have emerged as an unexpected election flashpoint. Voter opposition to the energy‑intensive infrastructure spans the political spectrum, driven by concerns over electricity costs and the rapid expansion of hyperscale facilities. Moratoriums have appeared on ballots, most notably in Ohio, where Senate candidates from both parties are campaigning against or highlighting opponents’ ties to the projects. The backlash could have downstream effects for Asian suppliers that dominate the component and equipment supply chain.
Key issues for the electorate include inflation, rising energy costs linked to the Iran conflict, trade tariffs and resistance to AI data‑center development. By contrast, China‑related rhetoric has faded from many campaign narratives.
Additional reporting by Masayuki Yuda.