Jensen Huang exit odds are low on prediction markets after Nvidia probe

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, pictured at the launch of the Sferical One AI supercomputer in Stockholm on Oct. 15, 2026, is facing heightened market speculation following a board investigation into allegations of foreign intelligence targeting.

Board members have initiated an inquiry after reports surfaced that Huang has been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort, though prediction‑market traders currently view a removal as unlikely.

On Sunday, Huang acknowledged an extramarital affair with a woman identified by U.S. intelligence officials as a spy for China’s Ministry of State Security.

On Kalshi, contracts reflect a 17% chance Huang will be gone by 2027, with odds rising to 30% by 2028, 35% by 2029, and reaching 75% by 2031. Polymarket puts the probability of Huang resigning or being forced out by March 2027 at roughly one‑in‑four.

Following the disclosures, Nvidia shares fell more than 5% in Monday’s trading.

Erik Flyg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

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