U.S. midterms open door to Iran diplomacy. Can a deal be struck?

U.S. Midterm Elections Unlock New Path to Iran Diplomatic Progress

Amman, Jordan
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Nov. 09, 2026, 4:38 p.m. ET

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4 min read

Last week’s elections in the United States brought more than a blue wave, experts say; they lifted diplomacy surrounding the Iran conflict above turbulent waters.

Indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran have accelerated since the midterms, which were viewed by many as a rebuke of President Donald Trump’s war of choice. Qatar has brokered the diplomacy, and intermediaries have ranged from Pakistan to Russia to China.

At the White House on Monday, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance hosted Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed al Thani. He also serves as foreign minister and is spearheading the latest mediation push.

The diplomatic revival begins just a few weeks after the U.S. ramped up military preparedness for fresh strikes against Iran. Multiple reports said the Trump administration was prepared to attack bridges and civilian infrastructure following the midterms. Iran vowed to retaliate in kind.

“After the midterms, because of the blue wave, things have now changed,” Dr. Abdulla Banndar al-Etaibi, assistant professor of political science at Qatar University, says of the atmosphere surrounding talks. “This created more space, a chance for mediators to push further.”

It’s not yet clear, however, whether mediators can capitalize on the reprieve, or whether an emboldened Iran or impatient U.S. may reignite the conflict.

Flurry of Contacts

Last Thursday, two days after the U.S. elections, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, and Kuwait – all countries Iran and its proxies have targeted throughout the war – as well as Pakistan and Turkey.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi met with Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, in Tehran on Friday, the Iranian Fars News Agency reported. The UAE newspaper The National said the visit was at the behest of the Trump administration, to “open a channel for de-escalation.”

Mark Schiefelbein/AP

Sheikh Mohammed al Thani, the prime minister of Qatar, smiles during a gathering of President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, in Washington, Feb. 19, 2026.

States from outside the region are also involved.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, met in Moscow on Thursday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, carrying a message from Iran’s Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Iranian state media reported. Last week, China embarked on a flurry of diplomatic activity with Iran and Gulf Arab states.

Even the tone used by President Trump and Iranian mediators has changed.

Mr. Trump said Sunday on CNN he was “highly unlikely” to order fresh strikes against Iran as long as talks progressed.

Also Sunday, Mr. Araghchi, on Iranian state TV, described the U.S. election result as a “shock.”

“We now have to see how long it will take for [the Trump administration] to digest these results, in order to determine how we are going to move forward,” he said.

“Not a bad deal”

Unlike a June agreement that briefly halted hostilities, the deal reportedly under consideration now calls for specific mutual steps toward both sides’ demands, Arab diplomatic sources confirm to the Monitor. The steps include the monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program, lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran, and an end to the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.

“This is not a bad deal, I think, for everyone. It’s just a matter of sequencing right now. Who will take the first step? That’s where we are,” Ibrahim Kalin, Turkey’s intelligence chief, said Monday at a conference in Ankara.

He warned, however, that “any small incident can trigger a whole regional conflict.”

On paper, the proposed deal would give Iran’s leaders and the Trump administration “wins” for their domestic audiences.

“After the blue wave, President Trump wants something to capitalize on, and an agreement ending the war with concessions from Iran on the nuclear file can be that” win, says Dr. Etaibi of Qatar University.

Yet the Democrats’ retaking of Congress adds another potential wrinkle to negotiations.

Eric Lee/Reuters

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before boarding Air Force One in West Palm Beach, Florida, Nov. 8, 2026.

While Mr. Trump appears more willing to prioritize negotiations, his party’s electoral drubbing has left Iran more emboldened, and, multiple Arab diplomatic sources say, some in Tehran are now less inclined to reach a deal.

“Maybe the Iranians say, ‘We are victorious, we influenced U.S. politics, why give more concessions?’” Dr. Etaibi says, cautioning that some in Iran might now prefer to “wait until the new Congress takes over and make a deal with the Democrats. Or after Trump is out of office.”

Iran holding out could lead to a prolonged “no peace, no war” scenario for a region on edge, leaving the U.S. and Iran constantly on the cusp of war, holding the global economy and energy supply chains hostage, analysts and officials agree.

“This is what the mediators are trying to fight against,” notes Dr. Etaibi.

“The war continues”

Anwar Gargash, foreign policy adviser to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, echoed those concerns in an Abu Dhabi conference on Monday, saying the region should “prepare for a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order” is achieved.

Military planners at U.S. Central Command remain on alert, while an aircraft carrier and a dispatch of Marines are on their way to the Middle East.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned on Sunday that “the war continues … both militarily and economically,” repeating vows to “hit harder” in areas beyond the Middle East in retaliation.

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Mediators are racing to take advantage of their extended window for diplomacy, as long as it remains open.

“Conflict resolution is about seizing the moment to finalize the conflict,” says Dr. Etaibi. “That moment can be hours or days.”

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