Deepfakes and Disinformation Cloud Nigeria’s Road to the 2027 Election

With Nigeria’s next general election on the horizon, the contest is already taking shape. President Bola Tinubu is expected to seek reelection on a platform centered on confronting the country’s worsening security crisis and steering the economy out of turmoil. He is likely to face former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and veteran opposition figure Peter Obi.

The nation’s electoral authority, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), recently published a preliminary voter register that reportedly contains numerous photographs believed to have been produced with artificial intelligence (AI).

Several red flags pointed to the use of AI, including distorted facial features in the images and irregularities throughout the register, from duplicated names to entries for people who have died since the last election.

The findings have raised questions about how well prepared the commission is for the 2027 vote. Rather than bolstering transparency by opening up its procedures, INEC has drawn criticism amid wider alarm over the growing role of AI in elections across the continent.

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Fake news: An old problem for Nigeria

Joash Amupitan, chairman of the electoral commission, said the body is now investigating the matter, zeroing in on discrepancies that may stem from AI use.

He announced the creation of a specialized unit to track AI-related threats, identify deepfakes and safeguard the integrity of the electoral process, cautioning that the credibility of the upcoming election could otherwise be compromised.

Even before AI spread across Africa and the rest of the world, this would hardly be Nigeria’s first encounter with fabricated images, doctored audio and fake videos circulating online. During the buildup to the 2023 election, deepfakes falsely tying candidates to terrorism flooded social media.

Such content is typically crafted to boost favored candidates or smear rivals in an effort to sway public opinion, a tactic that, with AI, could fuel disinformation campaigns on an unprecedented scale.

AI’s mixed impact on voter behavior

Lois Ugbede, assistant editor at the fact-checking platform DUBAWA, told DW that “based on our monitoring so far, AI-driven disinformation is serious and is becoming commonplace.”

“This could influence political discourse and voter behavior ahead of 2027 because we are already seeing parties using inflated crowds to show that they have a large followership or support,” she added.

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Yet the greater risk may not be outright deception. “The deeper danger is that people may begin to doubt authentic information simply because they know convincing AI-generated fakes are possible,” said Akintunde Babatunde, executive director of the Abuja-based Centre for Journalism, Innovation and Development.

“We often focus on the risk of people believing an AI-generated falsehood, but there is another problem where genuine evidence can be dismissed as AI-generated,” he noted, pointing to a lawmaker who recently made inflammatory remarks at a campaign rally and then claimed the footage had been manipulated.

The gaps in safeguards against AI

Chibuike Mgbeahuruike, an election consultant at the Centre for Democracy and Development, told DW that beyond the spread of synthetic content online, an AI intrusion into the commission’s portal could “undermine its institutional credibility, especially with the low level of confidence that we are already witnessing.”

He stressed, however, that AI is not inherently a danger to electoral integrity. The real threat, he said, lies in “the absence of effective accountability for its deployment,” as technological innovations increasingly penetrate governments and their democratic processes.

“Voters must have confidence … that the technology is also transparent, accountable and independently scrutinized, and ultimately subject to human and institutional oversight,” Mgbeahuruike said.

Jibrin Baba Ndace, director-general of state-owned broadcaster Voice of Nigeria, agreed, urging journalists at a recent conference not to be deceived by reports that could later prove false as a result of AI manipulation.

He emphasized the need for safeguards and due diligence in newsrooms as public institutions like INEC struggle to provide impartial information amid the growing use and influence of AI and other election-related technology.

Nigeria’s fraught embrace of new technology

Apart from AI, Nigeria’s electoral machinery has undergone a series of technological overhauls over the years, all aimed at improving transparency while boosting efficiency.

Authorities first introduced electronic support in 2011 with Direct Data Capture Machines, which record voters’ biometrics by scanning fingerprints or capturing facial-recognition data through webcams to prevent multiple voting.

A decade later, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) became the new standard, pairing fingerprints with facial recognition. But during the 2023 general election, the process was hampered by technical failures, as weak cellular signals slowed voter accreditation.

With more than 103 million Nigerians registered for the coming vote, disinformation, fake news and technical glitches are only some of the many challenges facing the country’s democracy.

Voter apathy is a growing worry, particularly among young people. The 2023 election saw the lowest turnout since the country returned to democratic rule in 1999, with just 27% of registered voters casting ballots.

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