The USD/JPY pair trades cautiously as investors parse softer-than-expected US industrial data while preparing for the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Tuesday. US industrial production rose 0.1% month-on-month in May, missing the 0.3% forecast and sharply down from April’s 0.9% gain. The modest advance provides only limited support for the dollar, reflecting cooler industrial momentum.
The report aligns with recent regional manufacturing data, reinforcing the bearish tone. The New York Empire State index surprised to the downside in June, printing 5.7—well below the 14.0 consensus and the prior 19.6 reading.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains sensitive to expectations for Bank of Japan policy tightening. Markets anticipate the BoJ will lift its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00% on Tuesday, which would mark the highest level in decades and further support the yen.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 160.07. The pair is oscillating between key moving averages, edging above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.78 while resting below the 20-period SMA at 160.29, maintaining a neutral-to-capitalized short-term stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 45 suggests waning upside momentum but avoids oversold territory, pointing to consolidation rather than an immediate breakout.
Downside support layers in at 160.03, then 159.99 and 159.89, with the 100-period SMA offering deeper floors around 159.78. To the upside, immediate resistance waits near 160.16 ahead of the 20-period SMA at 160.29; a decisive break above this zone would shift the near-term bias toward the upside.
Also Read
- Rewritten Headline: Crypto Analyst Warns: Ripple’s Victory May Not Be the End of Clarification Debate
- Trump Says Iran Agreement Has Been Signed, Cites Reopened Strait of Hormuz
- Euro holds firm as traders assess US-Iran peace deal, Fed decision looms
- Strategy Enters Bitcoin Realm with 1,587‑BTC Acquisition Worth $100 Million