BHP has updated its total investment estimate for Stage Two of the Jansen potash project in Canada, raising it from $4.9 billion (A$6.98 billion) to $6.9 billion following a detailed review of cost and schedule forecasts.
The company now expects production from Stage Two to begin in the latter part of fiscal year 2031 (FY31), a delay of approximately two years relative to earlier projections.
Approval for Stage Two was granted in October 2023, with an initial cost estimate of $4.9 billion. In August 2025, BHP announced a two‑year extension to the project timeline, moving the anticipated production start to FY31.
The company has indicated that an updated capital expenditure (capex) estimate will be released in the second half of FY26.
The revised figure reflects a comprehensive review carried out during the extension period, which examined project delivery, cost drivers, and schedule milestones.
BHP attributes most of the increase to additional construction hours, higher material volumes, and cost escalations identified during the assessment.
By the end of May 2026, Stage Two was reported to be 16 % complete, with engineering progress at 83 %. BHP noted that this progress has reduced the risk associated with the remaining work.
The company continues to forecast Stage Two output at approximately 4.36 million tonnes per annum (mtpa).
With a planned two‑year ramp‑up, BHP expects combined Jansen production to reach 8.5 mtpa, representing roughly 10 % of global potash output.
At consensus potash prices, the updated internal rate of return for Stage Two is 11 %, with an anticipated payback period of eight years.
Underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation margins are expected to remain above 65 %.
BHP states that once Stage Two achieves full ramp‑up, the combined Jansen mine will be the lowest‑unit‑cost Canadian potash operation, with costs in the $114–$130 per tonne range—a figure consistent with estimates at the time of approval.
Given the higher projected capital intensity, BHP expects an impairment charge of approximately $2.3 billion, before and after tax, in its 2026 financial results related to its investment in the project to date.
Stage One remains on track for first production by mid‑calendar year 2027, in line with the updated cost and schedule set in January 2026.
BHP does not anticipate changes to its group capex guidance for FY27, which remains around $11 billion.
BHP Americas president and CEO‑elect Brandon Craig said, “BHP continues to invest in its long‑term growth strategy. Jansen is a key pillar of BHP’s strategy and will provide exposure to a future‑facing commodity with strong demand fundamentals and portfolio diversification benefits.”
Also Read
- ‘Destruction is the goal’: Israel steers between the US, Iran, and Lebanon
- The riskiest SpaceX stock trade of all had a big first week
- Madonna’s New Single Misses No. 1 on Billboard Dance Digital Song Sales Chart
- Diplomatic Talks Suspended Amid Escalating Lebanon Conflict< /TITLE> Negotiations between the United States and Iran were abruptly halted amid renewed hostilities between Israeli forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants, according to multiple officials. The breakdown complicates early efforts to stabilize regional security following the temporary normalization agreement. Israeli and Hezbollah representatives reportedly reached an unofficial ceasefire extension after Qatar, American, and Iranian mediators intervened. However, anonymous sources indicated the agreement remained pending formal ratification due to ongoing military activities in southern Lebanon. The operation pause followed reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, with Israeli military spokesman Colonel Defrin confirming sustained operations in northern reaches reportedly aimed at confronting Hezbollah-held positions near Ali al-Taher hill. Three casualties were reported on both sides within 24 hours. Travel Plans Scrapped Amid Escalation Diplomatic movements had been suspended following boundary zone incidents. The trilateral discussions between Tehran and Washington through Qatar intermediaries were complicated by simultaneous battlefield dynamics in southern Shia-dominated regions. Military aviation records confirm missile exchanges near contested villages including Nabatiyeh, where 14 ground troops sustained injuries alongside four fatalities reported by local medical facilities. The coordinated strikes Sunni Triangle security zone infrastructure targets linked to Hezbollah’s logistical support network. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office characterized the military operations as necessary measures under existing ceasefire protocols, while Hezbollah commanders framed counter-offensives as responses to perceived Israeli territorial incursions across demarcation lines. Strait of Hormuz Stabilization Continues Commercial maritime corridors through the strategic Gulf passage remained operational within phased normalization frameworks, though regulatory changes emerged as administrative authorities announced temporary security cost allocations during transition periods. Oil transportation markers showed improved flow metrics Wednesday evening transit reporting $300 billion reconstruction trust fund implementation efforts under ongoing oversight mechanisms. Nuclear Program Discussions Loom Pending discussions will address stockpiles of low-enriched uranium material that the International Atomic Energy Agency continues monitoring. Previous 2015 agreement implementation pathways face renewed scrutiny after military developments impacted regional security architectures. The temporary accord’s 60-day stabilization period provides critical breathing room, though the unresolved territorial dispute between Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanese neighborhoods continues to generate friction with Tehran’s official security requirements.