Jensen Huang, chief executive officer of NVIDIA, addressed the media at a press conference following his arrival at Gimpo International Airport in Seoul, South Korea, on June 5, 2026.
Chris Jung | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Nvidia’s shares have recently slipped, and Kalshi traders anticipate a decline in the pricing power of its chips.
Although Nvidia’s stock is up approximately 12% year‑to‑date in 2026, it has declined about 3% over the past month. In comparison, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up 84% this year, and the fund has advanced 15% in the past month.
Nvidia has remained on the sidelines while Wall Street has turned its attention to memory‑chip manufacturers and AI infrastructure providers, boosting Micron Technology and Sandisk both up nearly 60% in the past month alone.
With Nvidia’s shares languishing, the compute price for its flagship B200 chip has also fallen. The B200, Nvidia’s premier GPU, powers large‑scale data‑center operations.
The B200’s hourly compute price rose to $6.11 on May 30 — the peak over the prior three months, according to Ornn, a live GPU pricing service. Since then, the price has slipped to $4.22 per hour as of June 21.
Kalshi traders now expect Nvidia’s AI‑chip compute price to remain below May’s peak.
Most firms access GPU resources via cloud providers or emerging neocloud platforms, but rental rates can vary as AI infrastructure demand expands.
“People often underestimate the computing power they’ll need in the coming year, and providers of that capacity are uncertain about how many GPUs to order and at what scale,” said Seoyoung Kim, a finance professor at Santa Clara University, in an interview with CNBC. “Nvidia, like other manufacturers, is unsure of the production volumes it should target.”
Earlier this month, Google announced a $920 million‑per‑month agreement with SpaceX to secure AI computing capacity from October 2026 through June 2029, involving roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs, CPUs, memory modules, and related components. Following the deal, RBC Capital Markets expressed optimism about Nvidia’s outlook for the latter half of 2026 and 2027, noting that the company appears best positioned among its peers.
The analysts wrote that, irrespective of the underlying reasons, these GPU rental contracts should alleviate concerns that NVIDIA might lose share to application‑specific integrated circuits in the near term.
— CNBC’s Yun Li contributed to this story.