UFC Fight Night Baku: Expert Predictions and Best Bets for Saturday’s Middle East Showdown

The UFC makes its way to the Middle East on Saturday for Fight Night in Baku, Azerbaijan.

The event features an early start, with the preliminary card beginning at 9 a.m. ET and the main card slated for noon.

In recent form, finishes have dominated the canvas, with 14 of the last 18 UFC fights concluding by stoppage across the past two events.

This 12-fight card is heavily weighted toward finishes, with 10 bouts projected to end inside the distance.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres

The main event between Fiziev and Torres in the lightweight division is a coin-flip situation with no clear favorite entering the cage.

While Fiziev brings proven track record and durability—having gone six rounds with current lightweight champion Justin Gaethje—Torres enters as the rising prospect with six first-round finishes in his seven career victories.

Fiziev has taken hard shots recently, losing four of his last five against top-tier opponents, including two defeats to the current champion. However, his experience and ability to absorb damage give him the edge.

Despite concerns about accumulated damage against a dangerous opponent like Torres, Fiziev’s resilience—surviving against Gaethje and going the distance twice—gives him the edge in what appears to be the card’s strongest matchup.

Prediction: Fiziev moneyline (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook).

Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira

Magomedov brings high-volume striking and aggressive style to this matchup against the aging Pereira.

At 32 years old, Pereira may be past his prime, facing a younger, more explosive opponent in “Bullet” Magomedov.

Magomedov’s cardio advantage should prove decisive, as Pereira struggles with stamina and lacks the grappling threat to control the fight on the ground.

Prediction: Magomedov wins in Over 1.5 rounds (-120, DraftKings).

UFC Fight Night Baku full fight card picks

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo: Camilo by decision (+650, DraftKings).

Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson: Almabayev by decision (+110, BetRivers).

Ikram Aliskerov vs. Bruno Ferreira: Fight goes the distance (+300, DraftKings).

Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk: Oleksiejczuk by decision (+480, BetRivers).

Farman Hasanov vs. Eric Nolan: Nolan by KO/TKO (+325, BetRivers).

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Julius Walker: Yakhyaev by submission (+155, Fanatics).

Nursultan Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev: Ruziboev by decision (+320, Fanatics).

Kaan Ofli vs. Javier Reyes: Reyes by KO/TKO (+240, FanDuel).

Daniil Donchenko vs. Theodor Berggren: Donchenko to win in round two (+350, FanDuel).

Bekzat Almakhan vs. Jean Matsumoto: Fight goes the distance (-167, BetRivers).

Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento: Abdullayev moneyline (-105, FanDuel).

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