The EUR/USD pair declines slightly to near 1.1428 in early European trading on Monday, facing modest selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid favorable risk-off sentiment following a weak weekly close.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises 0.1% to around 101.00 in late Asian trade, reflecting continued Greenback demand as investors await key Federal Reserve policy signals.
Last week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June highlighted moderate labor market activity, dampening expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes and prompting traders to reassess monetary policy outlooks.
Upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from its June meeting, set for release Wednesday, could provide critical insights into the Fed’s approach to inflation and rate adjustments.
While EUR/USD weakness persists, the Euro is outperforming other major currencies despite reduced expectations for European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes this year.
Euro Price Indicators
The table below highlights today’s percentage changes in the Euro (EUR) against major currencies. Notably, the Euro gained strength against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
| USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.12% | EUR-0.03% | 0.03% | 0.33% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.37% | 0.09% |
| GBP | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.28% | -0.03% | -0.00% | 0.34% | 0.07% | |||||||
| JPY | -0.36% | -0.33% | 0.28% | -0.31% | -0.26% | 0.02% | -0.18% | |||||||
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.31% | 0.02% | 0.35% | 0.09% | |||||||
| AUD | -0.10% | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.26% | -0.02% | 0.33% | 0.06% | |||||||
| NZD | -0.40% | -0.37% | 0.34% | -0.02% | -0.35% | -0.33% | -0.28% | |||||||
| CHF | -0.12% | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.18% | -0.09% | -0.06% | 0.28% |
The heat map illustrates percentage changes between major currencies, with the base currency from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, EUR/USD shows a 0.03% change.
EUR/USD weakness is attributed to a larger-than-expected drop in Eurozone core inflation. The Flash Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell to 2.4% in June, below estimates and June’s 2.6% reading. Lower inflation typically pressures the Euro.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
EUR/USD remains bearish at ~1.1430, trading below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1462. This key level acts as resistance, limiting potential rallies. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 suggests moderate bearish momentum without oversold conditions.
Breaking above the 20-day EMA could signal a shift to recovery, targeting 1.1500. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.1325 (June 24 low) may push toward 1.1300 and potentially 1.1210 (May 29 low).
Core HICP Inflation Data
The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) tracks price changes for a basket of goods and services in the Eurozone, excluding volatile categories like food and energy. Released monthly by Eurostat, the Year-over-Year (YoY) HICP is a critical inflation gauge. A declining HICP reading is bearish for the Euro, while rising figures are bullish.
Latest Release: Wed Jul 01, 2026 09:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.4%
Consensus: 2.6%
Previous: 2.6%
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