Monsoon Outlook: Near-Normal Rainfall Expected in Mountainous Regions with Rising Temperatures

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued its seasonal forecast, predicting near-normal rainfall across Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), neighboring Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during the 2026 monsoon season, while seasonal temperatures are expected to exceed average levels throughout the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region.

Higher-than-usual temperatures may accelerate snow and glacier melt, potentially increasing river flows during the monsoon period. The PMD’s assessment aligns with projections from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre (APCC), the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), and the 34th Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-34).

While near-normal rainfall could support regional water availability, the combination of increased precipitation and accelerated snow/glacier melt raises concerns about elevated river levels and heightened flood risks in vulnerable valleys.

The department cautioned that intense, short-lived rainfall episodes could trigger flash floods, landslides, debris flows, and slope failures in mountainous terrain. Warmer conditions may also amplify the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), prompting the PMD to urge residents near rivers and glacial valleys to stay alert and follow official guidance.

Overall, the potential for localized heavy rainfall underscores the need for ongoing preparedness and continuous weather monitoring to mitigate hydro-meteorological hazards.

Landslides and flash floods caused by recent rainfall have disrupted transportation networks in GB. The Gilgit-Baltistan Communication and Works Department reported closures on multiple roads, including sections of the Astore Valley Road due to landslides and rockfalls. Routes to Chipurson Valley, Misgar Valley in Upper Hunza, and the remote village of Misgar remain blocked by landslides and mudflows, severing critical connections between isolated communities and broader regional infrastructure.

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