Wang Gungwu on the New Cold War: Nuclear Deterrence, Proxy Conflicts, and the Limits of U.S. Strategy Toward China

Professor Wang Gungwu, the 95-year-old historian internationally recognized for his sweeping analyses of Chinese history and the Chinese diaspora, has held distinguished posts at the National University of Singapore, the Australian National University, and the University of Hong Kong.

Asked whether the intensifying U.S.–China rivalry constitutes a Thucydides Trap, Wang draws a direct parallel to the Cold War standoff between Washington and Moscow. The presence of nuclear arsenals on both sides, he argues, makes direct military confrontation improbable; the mutual risk of escalation forces competition into proxy channels, much as it did during the Soviet era.

In Wang’s view, military planners in Washington are likely defaulting to the playbook that prevailed against the Soviet Union: a prolonged campaign to erode China’s power without triggering a hot war. The objective would be to neutralize the perceived threat by undermining its foundations, achieving strategic goals through attrition rather than battlefield engagement.

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