Brent crude oil prices surged to a week’s highest on Tuesday, extending Monday’s nearly 5% gain. This rise followed President Trump’s latest escalatory remarks, which countered ongoing diplomatic efforts by Iran and Oman to secure access to the strategically vital Hormuz Strait.
Trump’s latest demands prompted Iran to suspend negotiations with the current U.S. administration until the end of Trump’s term in 2029.
Markets have developed a way to filter daily, often contradictory news, leveraging the so-called “Trump indicator” to gauge potential outcomes.
Despite daily chart indicators showing a predominantly bullish moving average setup, the 14-day momentum remains negative, tempering the positive signal from Tuesday’s price action. Brent breached the psychological $90 level (a 50% retracement of the $101.97/$78.10 range) but a swift reversal suggests the recovery may be losing momentum.
Subsequent weakness saw Brent drop over $3 during the mid-European and early U.S. sessions, breaching the key $87.22 support level (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement and 20-day moving average). A decisive break here paves the way for a deeper pullback, leaving the downside vulnerable to a full reversal of the recent recovery, should Trump’s rhetoric shift.
However, if the pullback remains above $87.22 or finds a foothold above $85.00 (just above the 10/55 moving average bull-cross), it could rekindle hopes of a renewed push toward the $90 pivot points, with potential targets at $92.85 and $93.28 (daily cloud resistance and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement plus 100-day moving average).
Res: 88.57; 90.00; 92.85; 93.28
Sup: 86.50; 85.00; 84.65; 83.73
