Zambia Election: President Hichilema Anticipated to Secure Second Term Amid Economic Pressures

Zambia heads to the polls this Thursday for a general election where President Hakainde Hichilema is widely expected to secure a second term, despite potential setbacks from rising living costs.

Since taking office in 2021, Hichilema has focused on economic stabilization, leading the southern African copper producer through complex debt restructuring processes following the country’s 2020 sovereign debt default.

His primary opponent is Brian Mundubile, a seasoned parliamentarian making his first bid for the presidency. Mundubile heads an opposition alliance supported by factions loyal to the late former president Edgar Lungu.

Opposition Fractures Threaten Unity

The election cycle includes simultaneous voting for presidential, parliamentary, and local government positions. To win in the first round, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the total vote; otherwise, a runoff between the top two candidates will follow.

“I am inclined to believe the ruling party will prevail, despite the significant crowds appearing at Mundubile’s rallies,” noted historian and analyst Eustos Chiputa.

“A major vulnerability for the opposition is their lack of cohesion,” Chiputa added, noting that candidates from Mundubile’s party and those of his running mate are competing against one another in several districts.

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While investors largely anticipate a Hichilema victory, the primary concern remains whether his administration can translate macroeconomic improvements into tangible job growth during a second term. Although economic indicators have improved and inflation has reached multi-year lows, many Zambians report that these benefits have yet to reach their daily household budgets.

Concerns Regarding Electoral Fairness

The election period has seen various allegations of political repression within the nation of 22 million, though the government has denied these claims.

Freedom House, a US-based non-profit, classifies Zambia as “partly free,” stating that while multi-party elections are held regularly, opposition parties encounter significant legal and practical hurdles to achieving fair competition.

“Competition remains relevant because the opposition maintains strong support in Lusaka and the Copperbelt Province, which contain vast numbers of registered voters,” said Lee Habasonda, a political science lecturer at the University of Zambia.

“Had the opposition unified behind a single candidate earlier, this would likely have been a much more difficult election for the ruling party,” Habasonda observed.

Polling stations are open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., with results expected on Monday according to the Electoral Commission. Should a presidential runoff be required, it must be conducted within 37 days of the initial vote.

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