Oil Shipments Tripled Ahead of US‑Iran MoU Expiration
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled while the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran remained in effect, yet still fell well below pre‑war levels, according to recent ship‑tracking data.
Approximately 374 million barrels of oil left the Gulf between April and the signing of the MoU on June 17, averaging about 6.1 million barrels per day, said Kpler in a briefing released on Wednesday.
During the MoU period, average export volumes through the Gulf stood at 2.3 million bpd. By year‑end, total throughput had approached roughly 40 percent of the roughly 15 million barrels that normally traverse the Strait daily in 2025, according to Kpler.
More than half of these shipments occurred within the first three weeks of the agreement, and “by the end the flow became lighter, slower and began to accumulate again behind the chokepoint” noted Emmanuel Belostrino, head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data at Kpler.
The MoU, announced on June 17 following intense diplomatic activity chiefly mediated by Pakistan, expired on Monday even though a lasting peace deal was absent, amid stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Its conclusion arrived alongside a continuation of attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, casting a long shadow over one of the world’s most vital energy supply routes.
Over the past week five commercial vessels have been targeted in the strait, including a cargo ship struck by an unknown projectile off Oman on Tuesday, which resulted in the loss of one seafarer.
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (INTERCARGO) identified the deceased mariner as part of the crew aboard the Liberia‑flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity.
“Behind every vessel embroiled in conflict are seafarers—civilians dedicated to their profession, far from home and family, whose work keeps global trade moving,” INTERCARGO stated.
“INTERCARGO reaffirms the fundamental stance that seafarers are civilians and must never be targeted or collateral victims of geopolitical strife,” the organization added.
No state or non‑state actor has claimed responsibility for the attacks, marking the first incident since mid‑2024 in which a confirmed fatality occurred since the U.S. and Israel initiated military action against Iran.
Since the two nations entered a full‑scale war in late February, at least eighteen seafarers have been killed in strikes on commercial vessels, according to the International Maritime Organization; attack trails include operations credited to Iranian forces and others allegedly carried out by U.S. forces.
The critically important waterway, formerly delivering roughly one‑fifth of global oil production before the conflict, recorded only 73 transit events from August 10 to 16, down from 91 the prior week, per preliminary figures from Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising about 0.3 % to $91.93 per barrel as of 06:00 GMT.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at Australia‑based KCM Trade, anticipates further slowdown in oil flows amid the Washington‑Tehran deadlock.
“The market is not convinced by the more optimistic assessment offered by U.S. administration officials regarding the safety of passage through the Strait,” Waterer told Al Jazeera.
“Until there is clearer evidence of sustained, safe transit and a more durable diplomatic framework, confidence among operators will remain low and volumes are unlikely to rebound significantly,” he concluded.