Nvidia’s Earnings Ripple Effect: Which Stocks Follow the Chipmaker and Which Ones Resist the Trend?

Nvidia’s quarterly earnings reports have become a major market event, with the potential to send ripples far beyond the chipmaker itself. Ahead of Nvidia’s latest fiscal second-quarter earnings release on Wednesday after the close, analysts and investors are closely watching how the results influence broader market dynamics. CNBC Pro analyzed historical trading data to identify which stocks tend to move in tandem with Nvidia following its earnings releases, and which ones historically move in the opposite direction.

Wall Street is anticipating adjusted earnings per share of $2.10 on $92.18 billion in revenue for the second quarter, both figures nearly double their levels from the previous year, according to LSEG data. The options market currently implies a roughly 5% move in either direction following the announcement.

To understand these relationships, our study examined trading behavior on earnings-reaction days dating back to 2016. We evaluated three key metrics: a stock’s correlation to Nvidia, its beta, and the percentage of reaction days on which the stock moved in the same direction as Nvidia.

For the “sympathy” basket of stocks that tend to move in tandem with the chipmaker, the screening criteria required at least 30 historical observations, a correlation of at least 0.45, a beta of at least 0.1, and a market capitalization exceeding $2 billion.

The results are heavily dominated by semiconductor companies and those integral to the broader artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) demonstrated the strongest correlation in the screen, with a 0.75 correlation to Nvidia and a beta of 0.28. AMD shares moved in the same direction as Nvidia on nearly 70% of the analyzed earnings-reaction days.

Vertiv, a manufacturer of power and cooling equipment for data centers, also ranked highly, showing a 0.67 correlation and a 0.27 beta. Due to its relatively shorter trading history, Vertiv had 32 observations in the study. Other semiconductor-focused firms also made the list, including Onto Innovation with a 0.64 correlation, Marvell with a 0.59 correlation, and Monolithic Power with a 0.57 correlation. Notably, Marvell moved in the same direction as Nvidia 71% of the time, the highest rate among the top-tier names. Micron, Broadcom, Synopsys, and Cadence Design also appeared on the sympathy list, underscoring how Nvidia has become a key bellwether for the entire chip industry.

Conversely, CNBC Pro also identified a group of stocks that have historically moved in opposition to Nvidia, forming an “anti-Nvidia” basket. This screen required at least 30 observations, a minimum market cap of $2 billion, a correlation of negative 0.45 or lower, and a negative beta.

Unlike the sympathy basket, this inverse group is comprised primarily of defensive names and non-technology sectors. Pfizer, for instance, exhibited a negative 0.61 correlation to Nvidia, moving in the same direction as the chipmaker only 38% of the time during the studied reaction days. McDonald’s showed an even sharper divergence, with a negative 0.56 correlation and a same-direction rate of just 17%. Other prominent names in this inverse basket included Verizon, Philip Morris, Amgen, and Johnson & Johnson. Gold-related stocks also featured prominently in the defensive group; Newmont, for example, recorded a negative 0.54 correlation and moved in the same direction as Nvidia in only 29% of the observations.

While this inverse relationship does not imply that Nvidia’s earnings directly cause these stocks to fall, it likely reflects broader market rotation. Strong reactions to Nvidia’s earnings often coincide with strong investor enthusiasm for growth and AI-related stocks. During these periods, defensive, value-oriented names tend to underperform, whereas they may outperform when the risk-on trade weakens.

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