2026 CFP Race: Which Group of Six Programs Have the Best Shot at Making History?

Even before the 12-team College Football Playoff format, Group of Five (now Group of Six) programs had opportunities to compete with top-tier programs. However, none have found postseason success.

In 2021, the Cincinnati Bearcats became the first and only Group of Five team to make the four-team Playoff format. With the format expanding to 12 teams in 2024, Boise State earned a No. 3 seed in the inaugural expansion year, followed by Tulane and James Madison in 2025.

Since Cincinnati’s appearance in 2021, G6 teams have averaged a 21.5-point margin of defeat in the playoffs.

Eventually, a non-Power 4 program must make history. Could 2026 be the year a Group of Six team breaks through to win a Playoff game or make a run at the title?

Each week, we’ll track which G6 contenders have the best chance of making the playoffs and potentially becoming the first G6 program to win a Playoff game.

G6 Teams With the Best Chance of Making CFP

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Boise State made its CFP debut in 2024 with an 11-1 regular season record. After an 8-4 campaign in 2025, the Broncos return the third-most starters in the FBS for 2026, including their quarterback, leading rusher, and top pass rusher. Despite moving to a new conference, Boise State remains the favorite to win the Pac-12. Their Week 1 matchup against No. 2 Oregon will be a crucial early test, and a strong performance could significantly boost their playoff résumé.

Odds To Make CFP: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)

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While many top programs lost their coaches in the American Conference realignment, Navy retained head coach Brian Newberry. Following a 10-2 regular season in 2025, the Midshipmen are well-positioned for a breakthrough 2026 campaign. Although star player Blake Horvath has departed, Navy returns four starting offensive linemen and should field one of the nation’s best ground attacks. With coaching continuity in a chaotic conference landscape, Navy represents a compelling dark horse candidate for CFP consideration.

Odds To Make CFP: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)

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North Dakota State transitions to FBS competition in the Mountain West, the same conference where Boise State previously earned CFP recognition. The Bison bring an impressive FCS legacy, posting a 123-18 record over the past decade. FOX Sports CFB writer RJ Young ranks NDSU 26th among 168 FBS programs entering their inaugural Group of Six season.

Odds To Make CFP: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)

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Following Alex Golesh’s departure to Auburn, South Florida secured Ohio State’s Brian Hartline as their new head coach. In his first offseason, Hartline assembled the top transfer portal class in the American Athletic Conference. His offensive expertise, combined with the nation’s easiest strength of schedule (No. 127 overall), positions the Bulls as legitimate contenders for CFP consideration in Hartline’s inaugural season.

Odds To Make CFP: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)

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Dan Mullen’s arrival brings explosive offensive capabilities to UNLV. The Rebels fielded the Mountain West’s top offense in 2025, averaging strong total yardage while now adding former five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold. Despite Arnold’s developmental challenges, Mullen’s offensive acumen could unlock his potential. With their leading rusher Jai’den Thomas returning, UNLV aims to build upon their 10-2 regular season success.

Odds To Make CFP: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)

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James Madison aims to return to the CFP with new leadership at the helm. Billy Napier returns to the Sun Belt Conference, where he previously achieved significant success from 2017-2021, winning two conference championships. Armed with one of the conference’s easiest schedules and top transfer portal classes, the SBC favorites possess genuine potential to make consecutive CFP appearances under Napier’s experienced guidance.

Odds To Make CFP: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)

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In his second season leading New Mexico, Jason Eck returns the second-most starters in college football (14). Key returnees include quarterback Jack Lyne and leading tackler Jaxton Eck, who happens to be the coach’s son. This unique father-son dynamic, combined with exceptional roster continuity, suggests the Lobos could emerge as a legitimate surprise contender in 2026.

Odds To Make CFP: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)

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Fresno State enters its inaugural Pac-12 season under second-year head coach Matt Entz. The Bulldogs posted a 9-4 record in 2025, highlighted by a victory over Boise State and a shutout win against Cal. Their stingy defense ranked 10th nationally in total defense, allowing just 285.7 yards per game. Opening the 2026 season against USC in Week 1 will provide valuable early insight into their competitiveness in the restructured conference format.

Odds To Make CFP: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)

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Hawaii opens the 2026 season at Stanford in Week 0 with high expectations following their 9-4 performance in 2025. Quarterback Micah Alejandro assumes starting duties after throwing for 3,106 yards and 24 touchdowns as a freshman, despite dealing with injuries throughout the season. In his fifth year leading the program, Timmy Chang continues building momentum as the Rainbow Warriors position themselves for potential breakthrough success in the revamped Mountain West landscape.

Odds To Make CFP: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)

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