CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled secretly to Moscow this week to convey a pessimistic evaluation of Russia’s war in Ukraine and to pressure Russian leadership into negotiating before their military and economic conditions deteriorate further, according to current and former officials.
During his visit, Ratcliffe presented his assessment to Alexander V. Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s F.S.B., while refraining from issuing threats regarding potential consequences should President Vladimir Putin disregard the intelligence and persist in the conflict.
CIA analysts have long suspected that President Putin’s advisors have shielded him from the true trajectory and human cost of the war.
The CIA has maintained longstanding communication channels with both the F.S.B. and the S.V.R., Russia’s foreign intelligence service.
Officials noted that Ratcliffe’s intelligence channel with Bortnikov operates alongside separate lines established by President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, with other senior Putin advisors.
Some officials expressed hope that Putin, a former intelligence officer himself, would perceive the CIA director’s message as more immediate and credible than standard diplomatic communications.
For much of the previous year, Trump and several of his top advisors appeared to believe that a Russian battlefield victory over Ukraine was inevitable due to Russia’s demographic advantage and nuclear arsenal.
However, Russia has sustained enormous losses, and its battlefield advances have largely stalled.
It remains unclear whether Ratcliffe’s message signals any shift in U.S. policy toward Russia or Ukraine.
Ratcliffe’s visit represents the Trump administration’s latest attempt to revitalize stalled peace negotiations. It has become increasingly evident that Ukraine intends to continue its fight in the east despite diminished U.S. military support.
Citing what he described as Russia’s bleak military and economic reality, Ratcliffe informed Bortnikov that Moscow needed to engage in substantive negotiations to end the war.
Since Trump’s return to office, the United States has reduced its military support for Ukraine, compelling the nation to rely more heavily on its European allies.
The CIA has preserved its close intelligence partnership with Ukraine, a collaboration that spans over a decade.
The private message Ratcliffe delivered to Bortnikov regarding Ukraine mirrored some of the director’s public remarks.
Last month, Ratcliffe publicly highlighted Russian troop losses and Moscow’s inability to advance, noting that a Russian soldier’s life expectancy on the front lines was under 35 minutes.
He added that Russia had seized only about 1 percent of Ukraine’s total territory in the 18 months since he assumed directorship, a development he attributed to Ukraine’s “mastery” of drone warfare.
Prior to meeting Bortnikov in Moscow, Ratcliffe spoke with his Ukrainian counterparts to assure them that he was exploring Russian positions rather than making concessions on Ukraine’s behalf.
European diplomats believe an opportunity to secure a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine may arise in the coming winter months, given the largely stalled Russian offensive in the Donbas and Ukraine’s continued ability to impose severe costs on Russia through drone warfare.
Some of these European officials have urged the Trump administration to include a national security official in the group pressuring Russia for a peace deal, someone capable of delivering the kind of blunt message Ratcliffe delivered this week.
Ukrainians have long viewed Witkoff and Kushner as being too closely aligned with the Russians. They consider Ratcliffe, a longtime hawk on Russia, to be a potentially more neutral mediator.
Trump has repeatedly utilized Ratcliffe as a discreet messenger.
In January, Ratcliffe became the first cabinet-level official to visit Venezuela following the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special operations forces.
In May, he traveled to Cuba, delivering a grim assessment of the Cuban economy amid a U.S. oil blockade. He urged the country to implement sweeping political and economic reforms before conditions deteriorated further.
Direct contacts between U.S. and Russian intelligence chiefs have been infrequent in recent years.
In November 2021, Biden-era CIA Director William J. Burns met face-to-face in Moscow with Bortnikov and other senior Russian officials to warn Putin against launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
A year later, in November 2022, Turkey hosted a face-to-face meeting in Ankara between Burns and Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service. U.S. intelligence agencies had intercepted Russian communications regarding a possible nuclear device to slow Ukrainian advances during the fall counteroffensive. Burns warned Naryshkin of severe consequences should Russia act on the alleged threat.
Turkish hosts wanted the meeting to initiate a lasting channel of direct communication between Washington and Moscow to reduce tensions. However, the CIA was angered when Russia made the meeting public afterward. Burns and Naryshkin did not hold a second face-to-face meeting, though they continued occasional phone communications.
After Trump took office last year, Ratcliffe and Bortnikov negotiated the details of a prisoner swap, though this week’s face-to-face meeting in Moscow was their first.