Iceland to decide whether to reopen EU accession talks

Icelanders will vote on Saturday on whether to resume negotiations to join the European Union, with the outcome expected to be closely contested after a campaign dominated by questions of sovereignty, fisheries and the country’s position in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.

Saturday’s ballot does not ask voters directly about EU membership; instead, Icelanders are being consulted on whether the government should restart accession negotiations with Brussels, a process that was suspended in 2013.

If the “yes” side wins, talks would resume and any eventual membership agreement would be put to a second referendum.

A Maskina poll conducted between 21 and 25 August showed that among decided voters, 51.3 % supported resuming negotiations, while 48.7 % were opposed.

Both campaigns have been making final pushes to win over undecided voters.

Fishing fears

Earlier this week, Haraldur Olafsson, chairman of an organisation campaigning against renewed talks, was handing out leaflets in Reykjavik arguing for a “no” vote.

For Olafsson, a meteorology professor who lived several years in France, the debate is fundamentally about sovereignty, and he says nowhere is this more sensitive than Iceland’s fishing industry.

Seafood accounted for almost 39 % of Iceland’s goods exports in 2025, and control of surrounding waters has long been central to the nation’s prosperity and identity.

Currently, Iceland largely sets its own fishing quotas and manages marine resources. EU membership would place the country under the Common Fisheries Policy, where access and quotas are governed by shared EU rules.

“You never know what decision the European Union will take on fishing. The French, the Spanish, the Dutch – everyone wants to come to Iceland to fish. We’re worried there won’t be enough fish for everyone,” Olafsson told RFI.

During the Cod Wars of the 1950s‑1970s, Iceland repeatedly clashed with the United Kingdom as it expanded its fishing zone and sought to keep foreign trawlers out.

Fisheries were among the most sensitive issues during Iceland’s previous EU bid. The country applied in 2009 after its banking collapse, but talks were halted four years later when a more Eurosceptic government took office and were formally ended in 2015.

Olafsson believes that even if voters approve renewed negotiations, they may still reject full membership.

“Many Icelanders do not want to prevent their government from holding talks with the European Union. But ultimately, I think Icelanders are not interested in becoming members,” he said.

Several hundred supporters gathered in central Reykjavik on Thursday for a rally, some wearing T‑shirts reading “No, thank you.”

Security has also become a key theme in Iceland’s debate. The country is a NATO member without a standing army and occupies a strategically important position in the North Atlantic.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to take control of neighboring Greenland have sharpened questions about Iceland’s place in Europe.

Trump also repeatedly referred to Greenland as “Iceland” while discussing his ambitions for the Danish autonomous territory earlier this year.

The U.S. State Department later reassured Icelandic officials that he had meant Greenland, but the episode added to unease over a rapidly shifting international order.

‘Yes, to see’

At the “yes” campaign headquarters, around 20 volunteers have been working the phones to reach wavering voters.

Their slogan “Yes, to see” captures their argument: negotiate first, then decide whether membership is worthwhile.

“Why not see what opportunities might come our way before deciding to shut the door? For me, we need to secure the agreement, analyse it and then make a decision,” campaigner Greta Maria told RFI.

Iceland is already deeply integrated into Europe. It belongs to the European Economic Area and the single market, and is part of the Schengen zone.

However, while it applies many EU‑linked rules, it has no seat at the table when decisions are taken. Full membership would give Iceland a voice in institutions including the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union.

For Maria, the issue is also economic. “We have a population of fewer than 400 000. We have a small currency, very high interest rates and high inflation. For me, it’s about whether the daily lives of Icelanders could be better than they are today,” she said.

Inflation stood at 5.6 % in August – roughly twice the EU average – while interest rates have hovered around 8 %, as policymakers try to rein in rising prices.

Even if the “yes” vote prevails, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has stressed that negotiations could take one to two years. Any final agreement would still need the approval of all 27 EU member states and then another referendum in Iceland.

This article has been adapted from the original version in French by RFI’s correspondent in Reykjavik, Sophia Khatsenkova.

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