War Game Simulation: Chinese Coastguard Would Use Weapons in Disputed Waters Just 0.3% of the Time

A Chinese coastguard vessel is escorting a group of fishing boats when several small, fast-moving craft begin circling—sometimes approaching aggressively, sometimes pulling back. Are they simply curious fishermen, or are they testing for vulnerabilities, attempting to draw the patrol ship into a dangerous situation?

In real-world conditions, a momentary decision could transform a tense maritime confrontation into a far more serious incident. This precise scenario is what Chinese coastguard researchers have been simulating through a computer-based war game.

Their findings, published this month, revealed a striking statistic: under the current rule-based command structure, the simulated Chinese coastguard would deploy lethal weapons only 0.3 per cent of the time.

While this represents an exceptionally low probability, Beijing considers even this minimal risk unacceptable when operations occur in sensitive, contested maritime zones.

To eliminate the risk entirely, the research team designed an artificial intelligence (AI) framework capable of interpreting a vessel’s intentions with the precision of an experienced naval officer reading changing sea conditions.

Rather than simply classifying targets as either “hostile” or “harmless,” the AI continuously evaluates the likelihood of various intentions—ranging from routine fishing activity to organized harassment—and adapts its tactical response in real time.

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