Key Points
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Merck (NYSE: MRK) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) are among the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies. Eli Lilly focuses on diabetes and weight‑management therapies, while Merck and Pfizer have strong oncology portfolios. Merck led the trio this year, yet a smaller biotech—(NASDAQ: MRNA)—has outpaced them since the start of 2026, with shares up 43% year‑to‑date.
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Why Moderna’s shares have surged
Moderna rose to prominence with one of the leading COVID‑19 vaccines, but its coronavirus business is no longer a primary growth driver. Investors are now focused on its pipeline. The company recently filed regulatory applications for a next‑generation flu vaccine in the United States, Europe, Australia and Canada. Traditional flu vaccines typically achieve only 40‑60% efficacy, leaving seniors and other high‑risk groups vulnerable to severe outcomes. Moderna’s mRNA‑1010 has demonstrated superior effectiveness in older adults, positioning it to capture a meaningful share of this market if approved.
Beyond flu vaccines, Moderna’s most promising candidate is mRNA‑4157, a personalized cancer vaccine developed with Merck. In a phase‑2 trial, the combination of mRNA‑4157 and Merck’s Keytruda reduced the risk of recurrence or death in advanced melanoma patients compared with Keytruda alone. The therapy is now being evaluated in multiple phase‑2 and phase‑3 studies and could generate billions in sales if it reaches the market.
Is the stock still attractive?
Moderna’s mRNA platform offers rapid development advantages over conventional vaccine technologies, which rely on live‑virus culture and attenuation. This speed underpins its dominance in the COVID‑19 vaccine arena and supports a broad pipeline across diverse therapeutic areas. Its late‑stage candidates, including mRNA‑4157 and mRNA‑1010, are expected to deliver new approvals and revenue in the near term. However, Moderna currently generates modest revenue ($389 million in Q1) and remains unprofitable, with a market capitalization of roughly $18 billion. While the platform holds long‑term promise, upcoming clinical or regulatory setbacks could trigger volatility. Investors comfortable with this risk profile may consider a modest position, whereas those seeking stability may prefer more established biotech firms.