Abortion Ban States Saw Homicides of Women Exceed Expected Levels After Dobbs, but the Analysis Cannot Show Cause

Homicides of women and girls ages 15 to 44 in states with near-total abortion bans rose above what researchers expected after the Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision, according to a study published Oct. 16 in JAMA Network Open. The authors estimate 48 excess deaths in 2023 and 87 in 2024.

The researchers say their design cannot prove that the bans caused those deaths. Some results also changed depending on how the statistical models were built, and the national analysis found no significant change at all.

The Findings and How They Were Measured

Liana Woskie of Tufts University and Brown University and Maeve Wallace of the University of Arizona analyzed CDC death certificate data from January 2016 through December 2024, drawn from the federal CDC WONDER mortality database. They counted 19,118 homicide deaths among female decedents ages 15 to 44.

The study compared 11 states with sustained total or near-total bans in 2023 and 2024, including Texas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, and Oklahoma, with the remaining states and Washington, D.C., Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and South Carolina were left out because their restrictions were partial or legally unsettled.

Nationally, the authors found no significant jump or change in trend after July 2022. In ban states compared with others, homicide rates ran about 7% above the expected level in 2023 and 15% above it in 2024. That translated into about 0.34 extra deaths per 100,000 women in 2023 and 0.61 in 2024.

The ranges around those numbers were wide. The 2024 estimate of 87 excess deaths could be as low as 20 or as high as 149, and the month-by-month trend comparison only narrowly reached statistical significance.

What the Study Can and Cannot Prove

This is an ecological study. It looks at groups of states over time, not individual women, so it cannot connect any single death to an abortion restriction. As the authors wrote, “the study cannot identify individual exposure to abortion restrictions.”

Death certificates also lack key details. They do not record whether a victim was pregnant, how she was related to the perpetrator, whether intimate partner violence was involved, or what economic circumstances she faced. Because those factors were not measured, the study cannot show how any link between ban policies and homicides might work.

The authors stress that results shifted with model choices. A more flexible model showed larger effects in 2023 and early 2024, but the late-2024 estimate depended heavily on one unusually low month. Results also depended on how the researchers handled the rebound in violence after the COVID-19 pandemic, and only six months separated that rebound period from the Dobbs ruling.

Texas complicates the picture. Its abortion restrictions began in September 2021, before Dobbs, and its separate estimate was imprecise. Results for the other ban states without Texas remained significant. Firearm homicides made up a high and growing share of homicides in both groups of states, and the study could not fully rule out the influence of differing gun laws or other policies. MedicalDaily previously reported that firearms were involved in most U.S. violent deaths in 2023.

Some checks did support the authors’ approach. Fake “placebo” start dates before Dobbs produced no significant effect. A comparison by age also found that trends in ban states diverged more for women ages 15 to 29 than for women ages 45 to 59, who are less affected by abortion policy.

The work was funded by the National Institutes of Health, and the authors reported no conflicts of interest. MedicalDaily did not find published comments from independent experts at the time of writing.

Reading This Research Alongside Other Studies

The study joins a growing body of work on abortion policy and women’s health. An April study in JAMA Network Open on pregnancy-associated deaths found no statistically significant change in pregnancy-associated deaths in ban states, and its authors described the results as early and imprecise. Mixed findings like these are common when outcomes are rare and time frames are short.

Readers can judge such studies with a few questions. Does the design compare like with like? Are the ranges around the estimates narrow or wide? Did the results hold up under different assumptions? Do the authors explain how the effect would happen?

People with differing views on abortion may interpret the findings very differently. The study’s own limitations point to the data that would help most, including pregnancy status and the victim’s relationship to the perpetrator.

Anyone experiencing intimate partner violence can get free, confidential help 24 hours a day from the National Domestic Violence Hotline at 1-800-799-7233 or by texting START to 88788. In an emergency, call 911.

Key Questions Answered

What did the study find? Homicides of women ages 15 to 44 in 11 abortion ban states exceeded expected levels by an estimated 48 deaths in 2023 and 87 in 2024.

Does it prove abortion bans caused more homicides? No. The ecological design cannot show cause.

Did results change with different methods? Yes. Some estimates depended on model choices and on a single unusual month.

Was there a national change? No significant national change was found after Dobbs.

Who funded the research? The National Institutes of Health. The authors reported no conflicts of interest.

Where can people experiencing abuse get help? The National Domestic Violence Hotline at 1-800-799-7233, or 911 in an emergency.

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