A political earthquake is brewing in Germany’s east as working-class and young voters appear set to deliver an unprecedented victory for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Sunday’s state elections in Saxony-Anhalt.
The AfD, which was famously backed by Elon Musk in last year’s national election, has faced criticism for being pro-Russia and was labeled a “right-wing extremist endeavor” by Germany’s domestic intelligence office, yet now faces a pivotal opportunity to become the first non-mainstream party outside the central-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) or centrist Christian Democratic Union and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), to secure an outright majority in a German state parliament, or Landtag, since World War II.
“The reason Saxony-Anhalt matters,” foreign policy expert and author Daniel Schatz, who holds a doctorate in political science from Berlin’s Humboldt University, told Fox News Digital, “is that the AfD is no longer just knocking on the door of power. It may be close to kicking it open.”
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Ulrich Siegmund, a charismatic candidate with broad appeal in the state, helped propel the AfD to 43% in state polls, far ahead of other parties. The AfD could possibly win with a majority in the state parliament and form a state government, which would be a first for the party. Saxony-Anhalt will hold elections on Sept. 6.
(2026 Getty Images)
Other minor parties have led governing coalitions in German states, but no party outside the SPD or the CDU and the CSU has ever held a single-party governing majority in Germany since the Federal Republic was re-established in 1949.
Janek Treiber, a political science researcher at Dresden University of Technology, told Fox News Digital that if the AfD wins outright in Saxony-Anhalt, its policy influence would be limited due to the German federal system, but warned “you must not underestimate the political symbol this would give. That a single party, and a right-wing party, could rule a German state—The symbol that these parties, that have been ruling Germany since 1949 or the East since 1990, they now lose control. They now lose power. I think this is a much more significant symbol than simply saying, OK, the AfD will change this or that in its local school system or university system.”
Schatz described the AfD as “a nationalist, anti-immigration party on the far right that has become a powerful vehicle for voter anger at Germany’s political establishment—especially in former East Germany. It campaigns for much tighter immigration, a stronger emphasis on German national identity, rejection of much of the green agenda and a softer line toward Russia.”
An outright win for the AfD, even in Germany’s 6th smallest state, would shatter through the political establishment’s so‑called “Brandmauer,” or “firewall.” Simply put, other parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD, which remains the second‑largest party in the Bundestag and officially the official opposition party, having won 20.8% of the vote in the February 2025 federal election.
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The AfD’s lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, for the 2026 state election in Saxony-Anhalt
(Sebastian Willnow/picture alliance via Getty Images)
In an interview on German broadcaster ZDF, the AfD’s national co‑chair, Alice Weidel, advocated for closing Germany’s borders and exiting Europe’s Schengen treaty, stating, “Illegal migration, unchecked open borders, anyone can get in. Our internal security is suffering. People are genuinely fed up with this situation.” Weidel added, “All Syrian refugees must have their protected status revoked because the reason for their flight no longer exists. These people must return to their homeland. If they do not leave voluntarily, then they must be deported by force.” She noted that many of the 1.3 million Syrians residing in Germany are undergoing naturalization, and called for stopping naturalizations directed at those who should be leaving the country, warning of “Islamization.”
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Regional elections in the eastern federal state of Saxony‑Anhalt will occur on September 6, 2026, and two weeks later, the states of Mecklenburg‑Wschodnia Pomorska and the capital Berlin will also elect their state assemblies on Sept. 20, 2026.
(Ronny Hartmann/AFP via Getty Images)
In May 2025, Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) classified the AfD as a “confirmed right‑wing extremist” group, citing “anti‑migrant positions and an ancestry‑based definition of German identity.” This past February, according to Deutsche Welle, that classification was temporarily suspended by a German court after judges determined that while there were instances of potentially unconstitutional statements and policies within the AfD, insufficient evidence existed to characterize the entire party as extremist.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently told state broadcaster ARD that he could not envision international investors attending the groundbreaking ceremony with an AfD Minister‑President to launch new factories and establish businesses in Saxony‑Anhalt. “However, that is a decision for the voters in Saxony‑Anhalt to make. The state could sustain considerable damage if such fears materialize.”
This has failed to diminish the popularity of the AfD’s lead candidate in Saxony‑Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, who commands a TikTok following exceeding 700,000 across the state’s population of just over 2 million.
According to a CSIS report, Siegmund’s polished appearance and professional demeanor lend credibility, while his radical demands intersect with footage showing him addressing audiences, reinforcing the “us versus them” narrative—the AfD represents the people, whereas other parties do not.
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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz sparked controversy while commenting on the nation’s migration policies.
(Thomas Traasdahl/Ritzau Scanpix via AP)
According to the independent, nonpartisan German website Wahlrecht.de, which tracks national and regional election polling, ahead of the Saxony‑Anhalt vote, the AfD leads the CDU with a 41%‑23% margin, followed by three leftist parties. A party or coalition requires at least half of the seats to control parliament and appoint a state Minister‑President, essentially a governor. How can a party achieving only 43% in the popular vote yet secure an outright majority? Germany’s unique electoral system provides the answer.
“German voters cast two ballots,” says Daniel Schatz. “One for a local candidate—like voting for your congressman—and one for a party. That second vote, the party vote, is the deciding factor; it determines how many seats each party commands. However, there is a critical threshold: any party falling below 5% receives zero seats altogether. Currently, several smaller parties hang perilously close to that line. Even if a party fails to cross the 5% mark, roughly 42% or 43% of the overall vote can still translate into a majority of seats. Thus, Saxony‑Anhalt could awaken to an AfD‐led majority government even though clearly less than half of the electorate selected them. This marks a historic first in postwar Germany.”
The CSIS report further reveals voters are drawn to the AfD—some, perhaps despite, its extremist ideology. Sixty‑point‑five percent of AfD supporters adhere to a right‑wing extremist worldview; yet more than40 % of AfD voters claim the party does not fully distance itself from extremist positions. Additionally, the AfD’s strongest recent gains have occurred among 18‑to‑25‑year‑olds, whose performance tripled compared to the 2021 national election.
Treiber argues economics drives younger voters toward the AfD amid rising costs and unemployment, noting that younger constituencies feel particularly polarized because a segment of the youth supports the leftist Die Linke instead.
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Saxony‑Anhalt may serve as a precursor for antistatus‑establishment parties. Voters in neighboring Mecklenburg‑Wschodnia Pomorska—where former Chancellor Angela Merkel spent her formative years and launched her political career—are heading to the polls in two weeks. Polling data indicate the AfD leads the incumbent SPD 35% to 32% there.
By contrast, in Berlin, where voters also participate in two weeks’ polling, recent polls show the far‑left Die Linke tied closely with the CDU at 20%, followed by the AfD at 18%, while the Greens and SPD each hover around 15%.
Although the AfD’s core support originates largely from former East Germany, the party now holds representation in 14 of Germany’s 16 state legislatures and commands 15 of Germany’s 96 seats in the European Parliament.
Tyler Speicher is an American journalist based in Slovenia who spent 25 years covering diverse stories—from the Little League World Series to hurricanes, 9/11, and its aftermath—for New York City news outlets, including twenty years on the Fox News Channel assignment desk.
