Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a decisive victory in the Saxony-Anhalt regional election on Sunday, capturing roughly 44 percent of the vote and leaving the ruling Christian Democrats (CDU) far behind. This marks the closest a far-right party has come to holding state power since World War II.
The party fell just three seats short of an outright majority. Lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund stated on Monday that negotiations are already underway to woo individual MPs from other parties to construct a governing coalition.
The outcome severely strains Germany’s “firewall” political consensus against collaborating with the far right, with much now hinging on the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). This populist party, characterized by left-leaning economics, immigration skepticism, and pro-Russia stances, could be pivotal in helping the AfD build a coalition.
FRANCE 24 interviewed Ed Turner, a German politics specialist at Aston University in Birmingham, to discuss the implications of this result for Saxony-Anhalt and Germany as a whole.
FRANCE 24: The AfD did not merely win this election with its traditional base; it expanded its appeal across nearly every demographic in Saxony-Anhalt. What does this broader support indicate about the evolving nature of the party’s voter base in Germany?
Ed Turner: The AfD performed exceptionally well among expected demographics, including working-class voters, those dissatisfied with their economic situation, and individuals with lower educational qualifications—groups heavily represented in Saxony-Anhalt.
Ed Turner: Furthermore, there is a distinct eastern German dimension to this support. Historically and culturally, eastern Germany exhibits much less backing for Germany’s support of Ukraine in its ongoing war with Russia. There exists a pervasive feeling of being second-class citizens, driving a desire for their grievances to be heard.
However, the AfD’s support was not confined to its usual demographics. Across different age groups, the party secured over 40 percent of the vote, except among those over 70, where it achieved 31 percent. Consequently, the AfD appears to be transforming into a “Volkspartei,” or “people’s party,” in Saxony-Anhalt.
FRANCE 24: Coming within just a few seats of an absolute majority, what are the AfD’s realistic options at this stage?
Ed Turner: I do not see a viable path to preventing them from taking office. It would require not only the CDU working with the left party, but also the BSW tolerating such an arrangement. The BSW has argued that completely excluding the AfD from government would be undemocratic.
Ed Turner: Within the next 30 days, the parliament will convene to vote for the minister-president via a secret ballot, presenting two potential routes for the AfD. Either the BSW abstains, or there are CDU rebels who abstain or vote for the AfD’s candidate. In either scenario, it is highly improbable that the AfD would be kept out of power.
FRANCE 24: What role could the BSW play following this election?
Ed Turner: The BSW, or Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, was formed by Sahra Wagenknecht, a long-standing left parliamentarian with roots in East German communism who evolved into a left-wing populist. She adopted left-wing economic positions while simultaneously holding conservative, right-wing views on immigration and strongly criticizing Germany’s support for Ukraine. Although the party missed out on federal seats previously, it holds particular appeal in the eastern states.
The BSW has proposed its own plan for Saxony-Anhalt, advocating for a non-political minister-president who governs based on issue-by-issue majorities. While no one considers this a serious proposition, it allows the BSW to claim they attempted an alternative approach, which was rejected, forcing them to fall in line behind the AfD.
BSW candidates have also identified policy commonalities with the AfD, making it a party that could potentially assist the AfD in governance.
FRANCE 24: What policies could the AfD implement at the state level in Saxony-Anhalt?
Ed Turner: German states possess significant autonomy over education, and the AfD has pledged to radically overhaul the school curriculum, particularly regarding sensitive historical topics—often summarized as “more Bismarck and less Hitler.” They have also discussed dismantling the integration of children with learning disabilities into mainstream education.
Ed Turner: Additionally, the AfD has proposed defunding the Protestant Church due to its perceived overactive stance on social issues. They have also targeted the oversight of the police and judiciary, as well as public service broadcasting. The party aims to unravel agreements that establish a common broadcasting framework among three East German states, thereby increasing its influence in public media.
FRANCE 24: Germany has long maintained a “firewall” consensus to keep the far right out of government. Does this result indicate that consensus is cracking, and what would that mean for German politics broadly?
Ed Turner: The firewall has effectively been dismantled because the far right is highly likely to enter the state government in Saxony-Anhalt.
Ed Turner: The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is considered a confirmed right-wing extremist party. It is a far more radical entity than, for instance, the French National Rally or Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. Because of this radicalism, and its refusal to moderate its message to gain power, it is very unlikely to secure federal government. However, its growing support and presence make it significantly harder for mainstream parties to govern effectively.
Ed Turner: Mainstream German parties are now finding it nearly impossible to form a government that keeps the AfD out of power while addressing crucial national issues. Consequently, without even holding power, the AfD is causing absolute chaos.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
