Africa’s Diplomatic Challenge in the Strait of Hormuz: Navigating a Low-Key Crisis with Global Implications

For nearly six months, one of the world’s key trade routes has been reduced to a shadow of its former self. Following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been drastically curtailed. Ships have faced direct attacks from Iranian forces, while threats from Tehran or Washington have repeatedly disrupted cargo flows, grounding trade in the region.

Despite repeated diplomatic efforts—including joint agreements, third-party mediation, and proposals for a maritime mission—the situation remains unstable. A potential shipping route established between Iran and Oman may offer a glimmer of hope, but its success is still uncertain.

The conflict has sent global fuel prices soaring, triggering ripple effects across continents. In parts of Africa, fuel shortages have become severe, with long queues at gas stations and delayed agricultural supply chains due to reliance on Gulf-sourced inputs. These challenges have compelled African governments to adopt a diplomatic stance in pursuit of a lasting resolution.

Measured Approaches to Diplomacy

“Long-term strategies still hinge on the expectation that Middle Eastern tensions could persist,” explains Liesl Louw-Vaudran of the International Crisis Group. As an advisor to the African Union, she notes that neither the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding nor recent diplomatic moves have sparked significant optimism about reversing economic planning.

African diplomatic efforts have largely focused on low-key advocacy for negotiated solutions. This has included endorsing the rules-based order, supporting Arab Gulf allies targeted by Iran, and issuing resolutions through the UN Security Council. Member states like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, and Liberia recently backed a March resolution condemning Iranian attacks.

An Unspoken Blame Game

Despite clear evidence linking the crisis to U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, African leaders have largely avoided direct attribution. Dismas Mokua of Kenya’s Tricarta firm argues this is driven by fear of retaliation from powerful global actors.

“Everyone knows Trump’s role in this crisis,” Mokua insists. “But leaders from Africa, Europe, and Asia hesitate to speak out for fear of consequences. Even European leaders avoid confrontation.” He questions whether a unified African voice—through the African Union—could challenge this status quo.

However, Louw-Vaudran remains skeptical. The African Union’s 2022 handling of Ukraine-related statements, where critics of Russia faced swift silencing, has left the commission wary of taking strong geopolitical positions. “With 55 members, the AU is deeply divided and hesitant to make bold declarations,” she adds.

Practical Solutions Over Symbolic Gestures

Experts emphasize that rhetoric alone won’t resolve the crisis. Governments and businesses must proactively adapt supply chains to mitigate disruptions, as Kenyan analysts like Mokua have observed.

“Companies and nations need to reassess their supply networks and prioritize resilience,” Mokua advises. Kenya has excelled in this, with minimal complaints about fuel or agricultural deliveries despite rising costs. Similarly, oil and gas suppliers have maintained reliability, albeit at higher prices.”

Ethiopia’s experience contrasts sharply. Fuel rationing prioritized security and transport, leaving private citizens stranded. As a former key trading partner of Iran, Ethiopia now balances relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, adding complexity to its foreign policy.

The war’s long-term consequences could also affect remittances. If Gulf economies falter, migrant workers sending money home may reduce flows, impacting African economies reliant on these transfers.

A New Era of Pan-African Cooperation?

Yet, the crisis may also drive solidarity. Nigeria’s newly operational Dangote refinery, now the world’s largest aviation fuel exporter, has positioned the country as a Gulf partner rather than a competitor. Nigeria’s government and Dangote Corp. are already exploring a Kenyan refinery project and actively supporting Gulf states economically.

“Nigeria’s strategic pivot is smart, given its crude oil reserves,” notes Louw-Vaudran. However, she cautions against overestimating Nigeria’s capabilities amid its governance and security challenges.”

Mokua highlights a deeper opportunity: using the crisis to advance the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). By removing trade barriers, Africa could insulate itself from global shocks tied to specific regions.

“Many countries cling to colonial-era borders out of fear,” Mokua says. “But diversifying trade within Africa is critical for economic stability in an unpredictable world.”

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