The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have appealed for over $200 million to safeguard 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk nations from the anticipated return of the potentially destructive El Niño weather pattern.
This aid package would encompass cash transfers, climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection, and flood control strategies, as extreme weather patterns increasingly impact regions globally.
“El Niño conditions are emerging in the tropical Pacific and are expected to intensify swiftly in the coming months, heightening the probability of extreme weather events worldwide,” the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) cautioned.
Africa’s most vulnerable countries include Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.
Severe drought in Zimbabwe threatens millions with hunger
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El Niño: What it means for Africa
El Niño is a naturally recurring warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically occurring every two to seven years.
Lasting between nine and 12 months, El Niño can induce hotter, drier conditions in some regions and increased rainfall or flooding in others.
“For Africa, the impacts won’t be uniform—it’s a varied scenario,” explains Kgaugelo Mkumbeni, a research officer in the Climate Risk and Human Security Project at Pretoria’s Institute for Security Studies.
Past El Niño events have triggered “hotter and drier conditions” in Southern Africa, heightening risks of drought, water shortages, and food insecurity,” Mkumbeni notes.
Eastern Africa’s situation is more nuanced, as El Niño’s effects vary by season.
Are African nations underestimating the risks of El Nino?
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Global warming: from bad to worse
Bhargabi Bharadwaj of Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre notes that “El Niño alters global rainfall and temperature patterns, with effects varying by region and season.”
“Certain areas risk droughts and wildfires, while others face storms and floods,” Bharadwaj emphasizes.
Experts argue climate change intensifies El Niño’s impacts rather than causing it directly.
“We’re experiencing baseline temperatures 1.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This amplifies El Niño’s extreme outcomes,” Bharadwaj explains.
The possibility of a “super” El Niño this year—with temperatures 2 degrees higher—is also a concern,” she adds.
Acting before disaster strikes
The key challenge lies in the speed of response, as “science often precedes policy,” Bharadwaj asserts.
In northern Kenya, Abdikadir Aden Hassan of Garissa Million Trees warns of catastrophic dual shocks: drought followed by floods.
“We’re in a dry season heading to drought by August-September. Then October-December may bring short rains. This dual stress could devastate livelihoods,” Hassan warns.
Experts stress that Africa’s climate resilience must transcend environmental ministries.
“It requires integration with agriculture, health, water, energy, education, and social protection,” Mkumbeni insists.
Climate-linked displacement
Factors like conflicts, energy costs, debt, fertilizer shortages, and aid reductions are straining countries’ responses. Bharadwaj warns that 2026’s El Niño forecast is alarming due to fragile global systems.
“Vulnerable populations in high-debt regions facing import shocks are at greatest risk,” she highlights.
Aimee-Noel Mbiyozo of the Institute for Security Studies observes that climate events already drive displacement.
“Cyclones and floods are primary displacement triggers in Africa. Droughts act slower but can also displace,” she explains.
“People generally prefer to stay put.”
Cities on the frontline
Drought migrants increasingly flock to African cities, which struggle with housing, services, and jobs.
“Climate change alone could displace 86 million more people into African cities by 2050,” the World Bank warns.
Lake Chad and southern Africa
The Lake Chad Basin faces a “perfect storm” of disasters and conflict, Mbiyozo explains.
Southern Africa, repeatedly hit by droughts and cyclones, remains critically vulnerable.
“Madagascar faces near-annual cyclones, while Mozambique endures unprecedented cyclone strength,” Mbiyozo adds.
How do El Nino and La Nina come about?
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Cai Nebe Contributed to this article
Edited by: Sertan Sanderson
