Agricultural Equities Show Breakout Momentum; Analyst Highlights Key Levels to Monitor

September traditionally presents challenges for markets, prompting a reevaluation of long‑standing ideas. The VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO) has recently resumed its upward trajectory after a 20% gain in the first six weeks of the year, forming an inverse head‑and‑shoulders pattern on the daily chart and breaking above resistance near $86‑$87. The pattern suggests a measured target of approximately $96, with the prior $86 neckline now acting as support; a decline below $85 would invalidate the breakout. Momentum indicators show a positive MACD crossover near zero and an RSI around 78, indicating sustained strength despite overbought conditions.

On the five‑year weekly view, MOO previously peaked above $100 in 2022 before consolidating into a broad rounded bottom, and its price now sits above both the 50‑week and 200‑week moving averages, with a golden cross formed by the 50‑week crossing above the 200‑week. The recent pullback found support at the convergence of these averages.

Deere & Company (DE), representing 8.25% of MOO, has also broken out of a six‑month rounded bottom that resembles an inverse head‑and‑shoulders formation. The $660‑$670 resistance zone has been decisively breached, implying a neckline of $675 and a measured target around $830, with the former resistance expected to provide support on any pullback. MACD remains positive and RSI near 70 suggests continued upward momentum, while the weekly chart displays a stair‑step pattern of breakout, consolidation, support, and further upside.

CF Industries (CF), the largest global producer of ammonia and nitrogen‑based fertilizers and comprising 4.8% of MOO, exhibits a clean inverse head‑and‑shoulders pattern on the daily chart. Its neckline sits between $130‑$133, and a recent breakout above this level targets a measured price of roughly $160. The stock is trading above its 50‑week and 200‑week moving averages, with a positive weekly MACD and RSI in the low 70s confirming robust momentum. CF broke out in 2025 after a multi‑year base and is positioned for further gains if the breakout zone holds.

Overall, both DE and CF present clean, high‑probability breakout setups within the agriculture sector, offering attractive upside potential over the coming weeks. Traders should employ stop‑loss orders just below the breakout levels to manage risk.

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