AI’s Surging Tantalum Demand Could Intensify Congo’s Conflict-Mineral Crisis

Conflict-linked coltan from the Democratic Republic of Congo is already entering electronics supply chains. Rising demand from AI and data centres could accelerate the damage while placing further strain on inadequate oversight systems.

Global Witness has spent years documenting how minerals extracted in conflict-affected areas of eastern DRC continue to finance violence and reach international electronics supply chains, despite due-diligence systems developed, funded and operated with industry participation.

Its latest investigation examines coltan from the Rubaya mines in North Kivu. The mines produce about 15% of the global supply and have been controlled by the Rwanda-backed armed group M23 since April 2024, with devastating consequences.

The investigation found that unprecedented quantities of conflict coltan smuggled from Rubaya into Rwanda are being purchased by at least five of the country’s seven largest coltan exporters. The mineral is then sold through intermediaries to smelters and is likely to reach the supply chains of major consumer technology, automotive and telecommunications companies.

Coltan is processed into tantalum, a metal used in electronics, defence and aviation. It is particularly important for capacitors that regulate power in complex devices and high-performance computing systems, including the infrastructure supporting artificial intelligence.

AI servers and data centres require high power density—the ability to store and deploy substantial power in compact components—as well as a dependable electricity supply. Industry reports identify AI servers and other data-centre hardware as major contributors to growing demand for the tantalum capacitors that provide this capability.

If the AI boom sharply increases demand for tantalum and coltan while oversight remains weak, it could deepen and entrench an already deadly situation.

How AI and data centres could multiply the harm

The risk extends beyond the need for more tantalum. Higher prices and tighter supplies could make control of mining areas even more profitable.

M23’s occupation of Rubaya has demonstrated how armed control of mineral-rich territory can generate revenue for a brutal rebel group, distort trade and introduce conflict-linked minerals into global supply chains.

If the data-centre, AI, defence and electric-vehicle industries compete for the same limited supply, the financial rewards from seizing, taxing, smuggling and laundering coltan could increase substantially.

That could fuel further violence, encourage additional military takeovers of mining areas and embed conflict minerals more deeply within the products and infrastructure underpinning the digital economy.

The United States’ central role

The United States has particular influence because many of the companies leading AI, cloud computing and advanced electronics are based or listed there.

Section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Act requires US-listed companies using tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold to examine and disclose whether their minerals may originate in DRC or neighbouring countries and whether their purchases may finance armed groups.

In practice, however, the rule has not created sufficient accountability across the downstream supply chain.

The US is also pursuing minerals-for-security negotiations with DRC while M23 continues its advance in the east with Rwanda’s backing.

The initial framework appears to combine mineral access, investment and security cooperation: DRC is seeking assistance against M23, while Washington wants more secure access to critical minerals.

Some reports also suggest that Rubaya, despite remaining under M23 control, has been discussed as a strategic tantalum asset for potential future US-linked investment.

These developments are unfolding while the US remains among the most active jurisdictions in sanctioning individuals linked to M23 and violence in eastern DRC.

Any agreement between Washington and Kinshasa should therefore be assessed on whether it restores Congolese control over national territory, cuts off M23’s mineral revenue, improves governance and transparency, and ensures that local communities benefit from mineral wealth—not on whether it grants foreign companies privileged access to supply.

AI is straining already inadequate regulation

Global Witness’s work reveals systemic failures across international responsible-sourcing mechanisms. Traceability and assurance programmes, including ITSCI, Better Mining and Responsible Minerals Initiative audits, have not prevented conflict-linked coltan from being laundered into supply chains.

This is more than a matter of regulatory compliance. If the same systems are used to reassure downstream buyers during a surge in demand, they could provide companies, investors and governments with false confidence while conflict-linked material continues to circulate.

In such an unstable environment, minerals-for-security agreements risk becoming opaque, extractive and short-sighted, particularly when a country facing attack must negotiate from a position of urgent need.

If growth in AI and data centres triggers a scramble for tantalum without measures to reduce demand, expand recycling, enforce due diligence and hold downstream companies accountable, the consequences could be severe: greater revenue for armed groups, stronger incentives to seize mines, more laundering through ineffective systems and more technology built on violence in eastern DRC.

Authors

Emily Iona Stewart, Head of Policy and Advocacy

Ashley Thomson, Senior US Policy Advisor, Forests

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