With the cease-fire shattered and Iran and the United States battling for control of the Strait of Hormuz, prospects for a détente look dim.
Another influential Iranian figure, lawmaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar, said Friday, “Dialogue and negotiation is also a continuation of the war and part of it.”
Talks have so far failed to bridge decades‑long tensions between the United States and Iran. Four veteran Western diplomats who have spent years negotiating with Tehran warned that de‑escalation would be difficult at this moment. One advised against returning to the table soon. Their recommendations follow.
Agree on the goal
The Trump administration has outlined several war aims: regime change in Tehran; curtailing Iran’s nuclear program and military capabilities; and reopening the Strait of Hormuz so commercial vessels can sail freely.
Catherine Ashton, a former European Union diplomat, stressed, “What is needed is clarity on the endgame both sides seek—what do the U.S. want as a final outcome they can live with, and what does Iran want?”
“For diplomacy to restart, they need to establish what they are trying to do and agree on a plan,” added Ms. Ashton, who led nuclear negotiations aimed at preventing Iran from building a bomb.
Federica Mogherini, who succeeded Ms. Ashton as EU chief diplomat and helped broker the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran, said expecting to meet all of President Trump’s demands at once was “clearly a non‑starter.” She urged that to restart negotiations, U.S. officials must “be clear on their ultimate goal—possibly a realistic one.”
Lower the temperature
During tense 2015 negotiations, Ms. Mogherini recalled, a shouting match erupted between Iranian and international officials. Iranian diplomats usually remain calm, she noted, but when a European nation raised an unrelated issue at a make‑or‑break moment, the Iranian side lost its composure. She called a long cooling‑off break, after which talks returned to the nuclear issue.
Ms. Mogherini advised the Trump administration to “take a more rational, consistent approach, less impulsive reactions and random contradictory public statements.” Including other countries or multilateral bodies at the table, she said, would dilute confrontational attitudes on both sides.
Consider the timing
Some U.S. conservatives argue it is better to wait before resuming diplomacy. Elliott Abrams, a veteran Middle East negotiator under three Republican presidents, said the only negotiation worth considering now is “a bare‑bones Hormuz deal” that would lift the American naval blockade if Iran allowed free shipping through the waterway.
“We just tried negotiating, and the Iranians emerged feeling triumphant, believing they could now take over the Strait of Hormuz and monetize it,” Mr. Abrams said. “So I don’t think a quick return to the negotiating table is helpful.”
That limited, wait‑and‑see approach echoed comments from Condoleezza Rice, former National Security Adviser and Secretary of State, who suggested “just let them sit there and stew in their lousy economy,” citing losses of nuclear scientists and internal Iranian divisions.
Set a realistic deadline
The cease‑fire agreement reached last month gave Iran and the United States a 60‑day window to negotiate a final peace deal covering the nuclear program limits and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Halfway through, the two sides appear farther apart than ever.
Ms. Ashton said deadlines are appropriate “if you include what you expect to cover in that time, and both sides agree.”
Robert Malley, who served on U.S. negotiation teams under Presidents Obama and Biden, explained that talks with Tehran are usually protracted because Iranian officials “sweat every detail, revisit tentative understandings, and verify far more than they trust.” If new talks begin, he warned, “there will likely be no grand bargain, only painstaking talks over every last clause and every last word.”
“The Trump administration prizes speed and simplicity,” Mr. Malley said. “By dint of its actions, it guaranteed that whatever it gets will, at best, be very slow and extremely tough.”